Numb3rs s03e08 Episode Script
Hardball
Way to go, Vick.
All right.
Oh, boy! Johnston's looking strong.
Yeah, Says it's a new conditioning program.
Well, if he keeps it up, he'll be batting cleanup again for the big club in April.
Oh, yeah.
Safe! Taking a nap, Vick? Hey.
Hey, we need some help here! When we opened his locker and saw the vials, we called LAPD.
That's very civic-minded of you.
Unless, of course, this has more to do with the federal grand jury probe into baseball doping.
I don't want anyone here accused of hiding anything from the grand jury.
And not from the league either.
Oh, yeah? You know he was juicing? No.
Well, he had put on a bit of muscle lately.
Vick used that to track his stats.
He made video recordings of his swing.
Mm-hmm.
Vick Johnston.
He was drafted by the Oakland A's at age 18.
For six years, he was one of the A.
L.
's top sluggers.
And then, for the next two years, he was on and off the DL.
Finally sent him back down to the minors.
According to the coach, this was supposed to be his comeback season.
He was determined to make it back to the bigs.
So we found these e-mails on his laptop.
Oh, yeah? We know where they're from? No.
Not yet.
So far, tracing the source has been a dead end, but they seem to say that they know he was juicing, and it could, quote/unquote, "ruin your career.
" So what? Blackmail? What's the file attachment? That's why you're here.
This math right here, they say, proves that he was using.
This is advanced statistical baseball analysis.
This is All right.
What? Sabermetrics.
Yeah.
Baseball math? That's right.
And this is way advanced.
I mean, this is not the kind of stuff you're going to find in the box scores of the Sporting News, you know.
I'll tell you that.
Any way any of that could spot drug use? I don't know.
I mean, I'm going to have to figure out what these abbreviations and notations mean.
That's not standard math stuff? Well, when mathematicians create new types of analyses, they often devise their own notational shorthand.
But I love doing research.
I mean, maybe I'll find somebody who knows this field.
Well, the death of baseball player Vick Johnston was the result of a massive hemorrhage in the brain.
He had a stroke? From the damage to the vessels, his blood pressure must have skyrocketed.
Can steroids cause that? Normally, no, but here's the thing.
Johnston had vials containing a designer steroid: Thoracyclene.
Most contain Thoracyclene in a form that's safe to inject, but this vial holds a concentration that's 30 times greater.
This strength would cause a catastrophic rise in blood pressure.
This was an accidental overdose? No way.
Thoracyclene is never produced or distributed at this strength.
This vial was specially prepared.
So it was intended to be lethal? It's hard to see another purpose.
So we're looking at murder.
Somebody gave Vick Johnston a lethal dose of steroids.
So they had to have access to his locker and the Thoracyclene.
Maybe the drug company slipped the tainted vial into this supply.
So that was the lab.
They said they're going to need more time to identify the manufacturer of the steroid.
All right.
So, I mean, the question is, why this guy Vick Johnston? Let's start with the wife - Kelly.
Not bad.
Yeah.
Former model, only she's been married for eight years, and her kids are five and two.
Did Charlie get a handle on these equations? Yeah.
I mean, apparently, he knows a guy.
Come on.
Right down the old pipe! Nice pitch.
Yeah.
We're just conducting a little hands-on study of the physical properties of the classic curveball.
You know, Newton himself was interested in curveballs.
I mean, clearly, baseball wasn't invented in his day, but he was fascinated with the way a ball can curve through air.
And who wouldn't be? It's all fluid dynamics.
Oh, yeah.
See, air sticks to the surface of the ball, so, when the pitcher puts spin on it, pressure builds up on one side and decreases on the other, and that imbalance, and the ball curves.
You know, hitting that pitch is one the hardest feats in all of sports.
But, Charles, when you called, I think your question had more to do with statistics.
Yeah.
Let me show you guys what I'm looking at here.
As you see, Dr.
Waldie, this is high-level sabermetrics, but I just don't know what some of these symbols mean.
And you know that I've won the Faculty Fantasy Baseball League two years in a row.
I do.
And, since fantasy baseball is based on statistics, I figured you'd be into sabermetrics.
Oh, absolutely.
It's the only way to pick a winning fantasy team.
How much of our school's supercomputer time is given over to this crunching of baseball stats? I'll never tell.
This stuff is pretty wild.
Very cool changepoint detection.
Do you recognize the person who might have done this work? Give me a little time.
If this person is active in fantasy baseball or sabermetrics, I'll find somebody who knows who he is.
Good.
He said people wanted to use him.
Vick's been under pressure to win all his life.
They were all after a piece of him- coaches, owners, fans.
Was he particularly close to anyone in the organization? No.
Coaches and the other players didn't give a damn about him.
Only what he could do for the team.
The only person that really cared about him was his agent, Richard Clast.
Yeah, Vick trusted him.
Said he wasn't looking for a quick buck.
He was thinking long-term.
And what were Vick's prospects? This was the last year on his contract.
No other teams were interested in picking him up because he hurt his shoulder, plus the two knee surgeries.
He needed to get his game back up.
He said the money he made now would need to last us the next 40 years.
Was there anyone that would have wanted to hurt him? Did he have any enemies? No one stood to gain if he died.
Vick was only valuable if he was playing ball.
Do you know where he got the drugs? Askhis coaches.
To them, he was just a piece of equipment.
We don't give them steroids, and we don't tell them what drugs to take.
But if they use, you benefit.
These are grown men.
They make their own choices.
And, if they don't get caught or busted, you turn a blind eye.
We don't test players unless the league says we have some reason to.
Otherwise, we try not to get into hypotheticals.
Which is never.
Even when a guy who usually benches 225 is suddenly pushing 350.
The team screwed Vick.
He gives them six great years, he plays through an injured shoulder 'cause they need him for a stretch drive, then he ends up on the disabled list.
I understand he was working very hard to get back in the majors? Yeah.
He would have made it, too.
These are good.
Thank you.
Vick was the real deal.
Great guy, and a great baseball player.
Did you know he was taking steroids? He said it was just until he could get his numbers back up.
Thank you.
Most players use now and again.
I'd say, at any given time, This was about Vick's next contract.
It was now or never.
Thank you.
Some would say that there is life after baseball.
Really? What were Vick's options? He was drafted out of high school.
It wasn't like he had another career he could fall back on.
He'd be lucky to get a job making You met his wife.
Think she was going to stick around for that? Hey, can you just give me one second? I'll be right with you.
Great.
What about his kids? They worshiped their baseball hero father.
You think they're going tolook up to some used car salesman? I don't know.
I thought the wife really seemed to care about him.
Well, I might be cynical, but I've seen an awfullot of wives move on after the baseball money dries up.
And the agents? It's my job to take care of my clients, to keep them playing and making money as long as they can.
Obviously, I have to care about their health and well-being.
But with Vick, it was different.
He was actually one of my best friends.
Professor Waldie sent out queries, asking fantasy league players if they've seen similar work and this is what we got back.
Hmm.
Where'd this come from? A Web site called boxscoretimes.
com.
It's for real stats fanatics.
Well, just looking at it, I mean it's gotta be the same guy.
Right? The abbreviations are identical.
Only here, he explains what they stand for.
DB- Distance Batted.
EJ- Elevation of Trajectory.
TB - Thrown Bats.
Thrown Bats? Who is this guy? Oswald Kittner.
He plays in 16 high-stakes fantasy leagues.
Kittner.
Okay.
I'm gonna go tell the FBI.
Now that I know what these abbreviations mean, I may be able to determine whether this math really does reveal drug use.
So, thank you, gentlemen.
Someone gave Kittner's apartment a going over.
We didn't find the computer.
Well, has he shown up anywhere? At work? Anything? He's unemployed.
We got a 25-year-old high school dropout with no bank accounts, no car, no criminal record.
Super, neighbors, no one's seen him for a couple of days.
Might be a blackmailer, but if not, his works' definitely involved somehow.
Incredible.
This Kittner person has basically reinvented the Shiryayev-Roberts changepoint detection procedure to pinpoint steroid use.
And without the need for medical tests.
I mean, this could have major ramifications.
Yeah, right, 'cause there's no way to test for drugs like Thoracyclene and THG.
Once they're metabolized in the body, they're undetectable.
Yeah, the wonders of sabermetrics.
It really is a powerful form of analysis in baseball.
The physical nature of the game involves chance, so the difference between a hit and an out could be millimeters or milliseconds, So, when you have athletic situations involving chance repeated over and over again, a statistical analysis can isolate and reveal human performance.
Well, you know, it wouldn't be the first time math revealed a surprising truth about this sport.
In a 1993 article in The American Statistician, J.
Bennett, using sabermetrics, analyzed Shoeless Joe Jackson's career.
He was able to prove that Jackson played up to his full potential in every one of the 1919 Black Sox series.
So, even though he was accused of throwing the whole series, Jackson was completely innocent, wasn't he? That's right.
Math restored a man's good name and reputation after 70 years.
I find that rather beautiful.
But, you know, this doesn't clear the player of cheating; it rather does just the opposite.
I know.
So, to test if it works, I gathered stats from players generally believed to have used steroids and ran them through Kittner's analysis.
Huh.
What did you find? His work seems to be quite accurate.
watching Blazing Saddles in my pajamas.
This better be good.
It's better than good.
The red cowgirl pjs? Mm-hmm.
Okay.
Okay, uh So Kittner's equations work.
They identify when a player is using perfomance-enhancement drugs.
All right, so, even if people thought Johnston was using They couldn't prove it, and now they can with Kittner's and Kittner could probably even be blackmailing him.
That's right, and when Charles told me that this Kittner person had dropped out of sight, it got me to thinking, displaced people will be drawn to places that meet essential needs.
If you're tired, you need a place to lie down.
If you're thirsty, you need a source of water, And if you play fantasy baseball, you need the Internet.
And of special note here: Tomorrow is the deadline for the winter fantasy draft.
So Kittner needs to plug in his laptop.
Yeah, what's? That's a downtown address? Yeah, that's Little Tokyo.
They have cyber caf\s in the area.
Well, fortunately, human geography is much less immense than that of the cosmos.
You know what this place kind of reminds me of? Let me guess.
Bladerunner.
Yeah.
Exactly.
How do you think Ridley Scott knows what the future is gonna look like? No idea, but Daryl Hannah made one kick-ass cyborg.
Is that? Oswald Kittner? FBI.
Come here.
Come here! Hey! Whoa!? Out of the way.
Don't move! Sorry! Sorry! Sorry! Sorry! Up! Hey.
Was that really necessary? Yeah, it is when you run.
Hands behind your back! Hey, well, wait.
Are you really FBI? Yeah, for real.
Well, at the risk of me getting beat up, uh, can I ask what you're arresting me for? So before you stick me on the next plane down to Guantanamo, can I exercise some legal rights? What, uh, what is this supposed to be? E - mails you sent to Vick Johnston.
What? No way.
Come on, Oswald, I talked to a lot of smart people.
They all know your work.
Well, they're blowing smoke up your skirt.
If you were wearing a skirt.
Anyway, I - I have no idea what this is supposed to be.
Well, then, I'll have to ask you the classic - if you didn't do anything wrong, why'd you run? Because last week I came home and two guys were tearing up my apartment.
So I got the hell out of there.
Your beef monkeys come at me on the street.
I'm not gonna wait around to see if they're legit.
Do you know who broke into your apartment or why? Well, I win a lot at fantasy baseball.
I - I just assumed somebody was trying to sneak a peek at my research.
Well, it must be a pretty cutthroat game of fantasy baseball Actually, it is.
One of the leagues I play in, winner gets 15 grand.
me and my laptop went off the grid.
This is Dr.
Charles Epps.
He's a professor of mathematics up at CalSci.
Him? Yeah.
Him.
Well, then, maybe he can explain all this stuff to you, 'cause all these, these numbers, I - I, it's over my head.
It's funny.
I don't think it is.
It's oddly similar to this work, which you posted on a baseball stats Web site under your own name.
He's the only person using these abbreviations, and it works.
His analysis accurately spots steroid use.
Good Will Hunting.
Yeah, you got me, all right? Yeah, this is my work, and that is exactly what it does, but, I never e-mailed it to Vick Johnston.
I never showed this to anybody.
Why? Why didn't you? It's a significant statistical breakthrough.
It's a significant advantage in fantasy baseball- if nobody else knows about it.
Tech went through his laptop.
It's not the source of the e-mails that Johnston received.
Yeah, see, I mean, I don't see a motive.
I mean, even if he was blackmailing him.
Which I doubt.
He was genuinely surprised to see his work on those e-mails.
Yeah, but what about the break-in at the apartment? It could be they were after his steroid analysis.
That still doesn't tell us who gave Vick Johnston a lethal dose of Thoracyclene, though.
We know yet where they were manufactured? No, still waiting.
All right.
We just gotta get a handle on this kid.
You know, I don't see him opening up to any of us, but he might with someone else.
Um Dr.
Epps, I got your message.
Yeah, how you doing, Oswald? Why don't you follow me in my office.
Yeah.
All right.
So, you know, I wasn't really sure that your attorney would tell you that I called.
Oh, yeah.
No, he doesn't want me talking to you He thinks you're just gathering information for the FBI.
Yeah, well - he's right.
But the FBI just wants to know who knows about your work.
That's all.
Well, I mean, like I already told them, nobody else knows.
There is another reason I wanted to talk to you.
Um, your analysis is amazing.
Really.
It's deep.
It's deep? Wow.
Um Deep's good, right? Deep - yeah, complex.
Elegant, yeah.
That's, well I guess you would know.
Um This stuff is all calculus, right? Yeah.
Guess you studied calculus in high school, right? Oh, no, no, we didn't have it in my school.
No, I learned from, like, library books, uh, stuff other fantasy leaguers did.
So you're self-taught? I guess so.
That's qu that's quite an accomplishment.
Um You ever think about coming to a place like this to actually study math? Well, yeah, but I mean, dude, I don't even have a G.
E.
D.
Dude, you don't even need one.
No, seriously, you could get admitted on the strength of your work alone.
You should at least consider publishing your findings.
Oh, hell, no.
I gotta keep my best stuff secret.
I mean, that's how I win.
Science is about sharing knowledge.
One more reason I'm not a scientist.
Yeah, you are.
You come up with theories, you test them, you make new findings.
Well, maybe I'll have to dust off a shelf for my Nobel Prize.
Hi.
Oh, hey, Pop.
You know where Charlie is? Yeah, he's in school.
Oh, listen, I had two meetings cancel on me this afternoon.
Yeah.
You want to play? Yeah, I wish.
I can't.
I - I gotta, I gotta deal with this case.
Oh, yeah.
The ballplayer.
Yeah.
It's very sad, isn't it? He left a wife, two kids.
You have any idea who killed him? No, I can't figure out a motive.
Maybe blackmail, but the thing is, blackmailers rarely kill, so What? Hmm? What are you doing? Nothing.
I just My last year with the Rangers, I hit.
228 with 36 RBIs.
With steroids, I woulda hit.
260 with 50 ribbbies.
So my backup did.
The guy winds up in the majors, you know? Uh, that would be cheating.
Yeah, I mean, is it cheating if everyone does it? Yes.
We all give up things, Donny.
Yeah? What'd you give up? I don't know.
I One day I was backpacking around Europe, no plans, no worries, all the freedom in the world.
Next thing you know, I got a family and a mortgage and two weeks vacation every year.
You regret any of it? No.
But I do miss the things I gave up for them.
All right.
So tell Chuck I'm looking for him.
Play well.
Hit 'em long.
Will do.
Fantasy leagues are competitive.
I figured if I could come up with a way to spot drug use in players, my trades and drafts would be that much better.
How did you figure that? Um, players that are juicing are more likely to get injured mid-season.
Stats back it up.
And you're sure you didn't tell anybody about your work? Not even my best friends.
I mean, I compete against them, you know? You didn't even hint that specific players were doping? Players that nobody else knew that about? Oh, man.
Did Colby get that report back? Don! Megan! Hey, Oswald thinks he knows who sent the e-mails to Johnston.
You said you didn't tell anyone.
No, I didn't, but I got into an argument with my friend Chris Bronmiller.
Huge fan of Vick Johnston's.
Oh, and you told him that his hero was using steroids? Does he have access to your work? Well, we hang out a lot, and I always leave my laptop around.
Chris Bronmiller, we have a warrant.
Open the door! Bronmiller's apartment gets broken into and he disappears.
No one's seen his for days.
Just like what happened with Kittner.
Unlike Kittner, Bronmiller has a car though.
Think he's living in it? Maybe.
You know, I've heard of a certain Cal Sci professor who's been residing in his car lately.
Fleinhardt? I don't know what Megan sees in that dude anyway.
Some women go for the muscles, some go for the brains.
Bronmiller's car is down here somewhere.
LAPD was told not to touch it.
That's it right there.
Doesn't seem like he's living in it.
Raises the question.
I hate doing this.
Oh, that's a relief.
Something smells.
Looks like we found Chris Bronmiller.
Looks like he's been dead for days.
Sinclair.
We have a dead body, First Street Bridge.
Hey, guys.
Oswald, I've got some bad news here.
Your pal Chris was just found dead.
Oh, God.
Are you serious? Yeah.
Okay Oh, God Oh, God That's so terrible.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry, Oswald.
Just take a breath, okay? Oh man.
This is so messed up.
Who who would do this to him? We don't know.
We didn't find his computer, but we're going to need your help here, pal.
I - I told you I don't know anything.
I don't have a damn clue.
All right, all right, just take a second- get yourself together.
How about his e-mail address? Uh um Chris might have used a cyber cafe account, so it's harder to trace.
I can make up a list of places that he hung out.
That's good.
That'll help.
Chat room cafe in La Crescenta.
E - mail accounts created through their server over the last few months.
I'm checking for credit card accounts in the name of Chris Bronmiller.
Oh, there it is.
Let me see if I can open some of these file attachments.
Oh, yeah, hey, this is Kittner's work.
Yeah? Yeah.
So it was his friend Chris who sent the e-mails to Vick Johnston.
And look at that- he got an e-mail in response.
"Regarding your statistical analysis: interesting stuff.
"I'd like to meet and talk about it.
Signed Vick Johnston.
But it wasn't sent from Johnston's laptop.
I want you to trace it and let us know, okay? Sure, I'll try.
Chris Bronmiller thought he was going to meet his baseball hero.
Yeah, who's dead.
Hey, you know, we have two guest rooms in the house.
Are you sure you want to? No, I'm fine here.
I prefer this.
I just don't want to go home for a while.
Not after what happened to Chris.
Right.
No, I understand.
The FBI still isn't sure who broke into your apartment.
I know.
So, uh what the hell is all this? Uh, cognitive emergence theory.
Ah, of course it is.
I'm attempting to mathematically model how conscious thought emerges from basic neural functions.
Oh, kind of like a sum is greater than its parts? Yeah, that's the basic idea.
That's nice.
Um, you don't have any, like, comics, do you? You know what, I do have something that might interest you.
It's a baseball thing.
Uh my brother Don played in the minor leagues.
And I kept his stats, so You might want to take a look at those.
Stockton Rangers! Yeah.
They were my fantasy minor league team when I was in high school.
Well, then let me ask you something.
Thanks a lot.
Appreciate it.
Finally got the lab results.
They name the manufacturer? There's three companies that manufacture Thoracyclene.
One's in the Philippines, one in France, and one right here, in the L.
A.
area.
Now the stuff we found in Johnston's locker has the chemical signature to link it up to the local firm.
So that proves they manufactured the fatal dose? Well, no, it proves they made the original steroid.
But somebody else could have made the concentrated dose.
Smells good.
All righty.
Here you go.
Thanks.
Here.
Doesn't your friend in the garage want to come in for a bite? Yeah, I offered.
He said he's okay.
You know, I kind of think he's used to being alone.
Oh, yeah? Fantasy baseball.
What a way to make a living.
What do you mean? I think a lot of these guys actually end up working for teams, right? It's true.
Bill James.
Bill James was a self-taught baseball stats fanatic who published his findings.
He now works for the Red Sox.
Hey, Charlie Um, oh, I'm sorry.
I didn't mean to interrupt.
I just wanted to answer Charlie's question.
That's all right.
What question? A baseball question.
Um, about you, actually.
Yeah, just if you'd kept playing, would you have made the majors? So I made two evaluations.
One if you had continued to develop normally, and one if you'd decided to use steroids.
This should be interesting.
Um, so with the 'roids, you probably would have raised your batting average to.
280 with ten to 15 home runs.
Well, so, it sounds like the majors.
Well, "ish" because, well, yeah, your hitting would have improved- your overall value as a player would have diminished.
Why? How so? Well, 'cause Don's value was as a utility player.
You didn't excel at one particular position.
You played several very well.
You were a solid fielder.
Quick mentally and physically and steroids would have messed with that.
Yeah, so, and without the drugs? Uh, it's a bit harder to say.
Um, a lot of major league clubs like to have a few utility guys on the bench- players who are smart and can adapt quickly to different situations.
Yeah, like at the FBI.
Like the FBI.
BRX makes nutritional supplements.
Vitamins, protein powders.
And you manufacture Thoracyclene? One of our chemists created it for use in adolescent males with pituitary malfunction.
People forget that most steroids and sports enhancement drugs also have many legitimate purposes.
They're used to stimulate the growth of bone marrow, as hormone replacements in males and to treat age-related problems in the elderly.
You're the only company in the U.
S.
that manufactures Thoracyclene, correct? We hold the patent here, yes.
Two foreign manufacturers also pay us a licensing fee for the right to produce it as well.
You were originally located in North Carolina, but we understand you ran into some troubles there? The Attorney General was against holistic medicine.
So, we relocated to a state that doesn't have an agenda a against alternative medicine.
So you're saying that investigation had nothing to do with your production of steroids? I had a feeling this was where this was going.
So, I thought I'd save you a little work.
Stacy, bring me that file please.
Our sales records of Thoracyclene as submitted to the FDA.
Every purchase was made by a licensed physician or distributor.
And the only patients who should be receiving it, are young boys with growth disorders.
Found a guy who BRX sells Thoracyclene to you might want to take a look at- Dr.
Thomas Mandel.
Yeah, why him? Specializes in sports medicine.
Apparently treats a lot of college, high school kids.
All right, let's check him out.
to start cutting corners.
The drugs don't do the work for you, man.
They just change your body chemistry so you can work out harder and longer.
The things you pick up in college wrestling, you know.
Yeah, and I admit I was tempted, but the problem is, you start altering your body chemistry as an adolescent, you run the risk of serious, permanent damage.
Like baldness and erectile dysfunction, premature closure of the growth plates.
Too much testosterone can kill brain cells.
It's not worth it, man.
And I didn't even get to gynecomastia yet.
It's enlarged breasts in men.
Aah You worried about violating doctor-patient confidentiality? It's a college facility that's open to all the students and we have the administration's permission to be here.
Nah.
If the good doctor wants privacy, he should work out of his office.
Excuse me.
Can I help you? We just need to check something.
Whoa.
Thoracyclene.
Legal only by a prescription.
And only to treat specific conditions such as unusually small size in children.
It's either working real good or you're in some trouble.
I want my lawyer! I didn't know Vic Johnston.
I never treated him.
Easy enough to confirm.
Just give us a list of the people you did sell steroids to.
That's a violation of confidentiality.
We have half a dozen athletes who said you never examined them or took a medical history.
Yet you did supply them with sports drugs.
Most of them between the age of 17 and 22.
A couple as young as 14.
All they had to do was show up, pay and get a shot.
If I give you a list of people I sell to, what do you give me? Points for cooperation.
Glove down, Monty.
Come on, you guys.
Let's pick it up.
Let's see some hustle.
Come on.
Max Sheveransky? FBI.
Need you to come with us, sir.
What's this about? Vick Johnston.
We know you were his high school coach.
I haven't talked to him in years.
You should know a search warrant's being executed for your home, your car and your office.
Looks like you already know what we're gonna find.
We have witnesses that saw you with Vick Johnston two months ago.
He wanted help.
No one was offering him a contract.
So you supplied him with Thoracyclene? I was the only person he trusted.
He called you two days before he died.
No? No, I don't remember that.
Your phone records remember it.
You spoke to him once for 36 minutes and once for 47.
What about? They play pretty good baseball in federal prisons, you know.
All right.
Vick said he thought he was going to be exposed.
By whom? He wouldn't say.
He just said it was gonna get out.
That if he got caught, he'd have to give them my name to the grand jury.
You tell anyone else about this? Not a soul.
Not even my wife.
What did you do? I didn't know what to do.
And then Vick died.
Yeah, from drugs you gave him.
I don't understand how.
It was the same stuff everybody gets.
I can't help thinking that if I hadn't developed a doping formula, Chris would still be alive.
But that that's not your fault.
Actions can have unintended consequences.
You know, scientists struggle with that.
Scientists? All the time.
Scientific breakthroughs have benefits.
I play fantasy baseball.
But the ability to conceptualize a solution to a problem, it's what applied mathematics is all about, okay? You have that ability.
And you can apply it to other problems.
You're a Good Will Hunting man, not me.
I'm just a loser who likes baseball way too much.
Whether you like to admit it or not, you do also love math.
So BRX sold to the doctor, the doctor sold to the high school coach and the coach sold to Vick Johnston? Yeah, we totally have the chain of supply, but it's still not telling us which one killed Johnston.
And we have no link to the murdered fantasy baseball player.
And both the coach and the doctor have alibis.
When Bronmiller was killed, Sheveransky was in Sacramento and the doctor was in Las Vegas.
Wait a minute.
Only the BRX lab could make the lethal dose.
You know, you're still welcome in my garage.
Yeah, I know.
Don't worry about me.
I'll be okay.
Okay, but Oswald, just stay in touch.
Yeah, of course.
Everyone, stand back! No, no, stay still! Don't move.
It's okay.
I don't think Oh, geez! Look at that.
I guess, uh, they missed.
So I almost get shot, and you guys respond by doing a lot of math.
That's how we roll here at Cal-Sci.
Don thinks that somebody wants to get rid of your doping equations and anybody who knows about them.
And we are trying to determine just who might have that motive.
Right.
Now let me ask you, Oswald.
Are you seeing what I'm seeing? Dude, honestly, all I see is a lot of chalk.
Are the numbers supposed to start glowing at some point? Yeah, actually, I have known certain expressions to take on a shimmering quality.
Ah, so you have.
Look, I'll tell you who has the greatest motive to bury my work.
It's obvious.
It's the drug company that makes the juice.
It's obvious.
Well, thank you, Professor Kittner.
It only took us hours of value assessment to come up with that conclusion and you're saying it's obvious.
Hasn't your brother taught you anything about crime? Isn't it usually the person who stands to lose or gain the most amount of money? Thoracyclene is valuable because there's not test for it.
Of course, you work destroys that value.
Right, and then there's this.
What is this? This is an organizational analysis chart.
We're quantifying the links between the elements of this case.
And note the drug lab.
It's linked to everyone.
Copy of Oswald Kittner's analysis.
Where'd you find this? I've never seen that before.
Mr.
Auster, we've established a chain of purchase that connects you to Vick Johnston.
And this mathematical formula we just found, that's a motive for murder.
Take a look at that.
You printed out the e-mails sent to Chris Bronmiller that set up a place where he was murdered.
I didn't kill anybody, all right? None of this was my idea.
Whoa! Good shot, Bobby! Beautiful, beautiful! Keep that up, we'll get a little bidding war going for you.
Play wherever you want.
Richard Clast? Hi.
Going over a list of your baseball clients.
Ran their stats through your boy Kittner's system.
Okay, I don't know what this is.
I'm not a mathematician.
Is that why you gave it to the president of BRX labs who's a scientist.
He told you what this math could do.
Yeah, I don't know who that is.
Really? 'Cause your phone number's all over his company records.
And almost all your clients are juicing.
So there must be a lot at stake for a guy like you, huh? Yeah, you know what? For a lot of agents.
I think we're finished here.
Thank you.
Whoa, whoa, you're not going anywhere.
You're the only agent who knew about the math application 'cause your client, your best friend, Vick Johnston told you.
Let's go.
Turn around.
Get you hands behind your back.
I found blood on Chris Bronmiller's jacket that doesn't match his DNA.
Somehow, I got a feeling it's going to match yours, isn't it? Let's go.
You know, I loved this game just as much as Vick did.
You're what's wrong with this game.
Hey.
Hey, guys, it's okay.
It's over.
We got him.
What? Yeah, found a gun at this beach house that matched the bullets that were fired at you.
Wait.
So me almost getting shot at actually helped nail this guy? I just hope he gets what he deserves.
My friend Chris was a decent guy.
Oswald, the FBI lab at Quantico wanted to know if you'd agree to consult with them on your formula.
They want to develop it as an investigative tool.
I don't know.
My secret doping stats in the hands of the feds? No, of course, yes.
I'm joking.
Whatever you guys want.
I owe you.
I just feel I should tell you I got a call from Vick's minor league team.
They want me to be their statistician.
Okay, but this work for the FBI could be a really great opportunity for you.
Yeah, look, you can do both.
Look how overworked this guy is.
Your work could be recognized.
You could even publish an article in the American Journal of Statistics.
My boyhood dream come true.
He's got the aptitude and the ability.
He just can't see it for himself.
Hey, you guys see the news? That case of yours is big stuff, Don.
That's right.
We got ourselves a scandal.
And if the FBI can prove the efficacy of Oswald's analysis, it could get even bigger.
Yeah.
You, uh, thirsty? You thirsty? I'll take a beer.
Beer? Three beers? That case of yours bring back memories, does it? Yeah, well, hey, look, you know? It's my first love.
First love, my ass.
What are you talking about? Don't you remember how you got started in baseball? I always loved baseball.
Nah, not really.
Your mother and I got you into Little League because we had to get you stop playing around with that little toy gun that your Uncle Tommy gave you.
Oh, yeah.
What, that was that silver six-shooter.
Yeah, yeah, you were playing with it constantly.
We didn't think it was very healthy, so we figured baseball would get your mind off it, see, and it did for a couple of decades.
I guess so.
Yeah, yeah, you love baseball, but it wasn't your first love.
Hey, don't you remember when you were a kid you used to love to play cops and robbers? Donny, you were always the cop.
Well, then, to Donny Epps, a born cop.
A most excellent one.
I say hear, hear, to that.
Thanks.
Cheers.
All right.
Oh, boy! Johnston's looking strong.
Yeah, Says it's a new conditioning program.
Well, if he keeps it up, he'll be batting cleanup again for the big club in April.
Oh, yeah.
Safe! Taking a nap, Vick? Hey.
Hey, we need some help here! When we opened his locker and saw the vials, we called LAPD.
That's very civic-minded of you.
Unless, of course, this has more to do with the federal grand jury probe into baseball doping.
I don't want anyone here accused of hiding anything from the grand jury.
And not from the league either.
Oh, yeah? You know he was juicing? No.
Well, he had put on a bit of muscle lately.
Vick used that to track his stats.
He made video recordings of his swing.
Mm-hmm.
Vick Johnston.
He was drafted by the Oakland A's at age 18.
For six years, he was one of the A.
L.
's top sluggers.
And then, for the next two years, he was on and off the DL.
Finally sent him back down to the minors.
According to the coach, this was supposed to be his comeback season.
He was determined to make it back to the bigs.
So we found these e-mails on his laptop.
Oh, yeah? We know where they're from? No.
Not yet.
So far, tracing the source has been a dead end, but they seem to say that they know he was juicing, and it could, quote/unquote, "ruin your career.
" So what? Blackmail? What's the file attachment? That's why you're here.
This math right here, they say, proves that he was using.
This is advanced statistical baseball analysis.
This is All right.
What? Sabermetrics.
Yeah.
Baseball math? That's right.
And this is way advanced.
I mean, this is not the kind of stuff you're going to find in the box scores of the Sporting News, you know.
I'll tell you that.
Any way any of that could spot drug use? I don't know.
I mean, I'm going to have to figure out what these abbreviations and notations mean.
That's not standard math stuff? Well, when mathematicians create new types of analyses, they often devise their own notational shorthand.
But I love doing research.
I mean, maybe I'll find somebody who knows this field.
Well, the death of baseball player Vick Johnston was the result of a massive hemorrhage in the brain.
He had a stroke? From the damage to the vessels, his blood pressure must have skyrocketed.
Can steroids cause that? Normally, no, but here's the thing.
Johnston had vials containing a designer steroid: Thoracyclene.
Most contain Thoracyclene in a form that's safe to inject, but this vial holds a concentration that's 30 times greater.
This strength would cause a catastrophic rise in blood pressure.
This was an accidental overdose? No way.
Thoracyclene is never produced or distributed at this strength.
This vial was specially prepared.
So it was intended to be lethal? It's hard to see another purpose.
So we're looking at murder.
Somebody gave Vick Johnston a lethal dose of steroids.
So they had to have access to his locker and the Thoracyclene.
Maybe the drug company slipped the tainted vial into this supply.
So that was the lab.
They said they're going to need more time to identify the manufacturer of the steroid.
All right.
So, I mean, the question is, why this guy Vick Johnston? Let's start with the wife - Kelly.
Not bad.
Yeah.
Former model, only she's been married for eight years, and her kids are five and two.
Did Charlie get a handle on these equations? Yeah.
I mean, apparently, he knows a guy.
Come on.
Right down the old pipe! Nice pitch.
Yeah.
We're just conducting a little hands-on study of the physical properties of the classic curveball.
You know, Newton himself was interested in curveballs.
I mean, clearly, baseball wasn't invented in his day, but he was fascinated with the way a ball can curve through air.
And who wouldn't be? It's all fluid dynamics.
Oh, yeah.
See, air sticks to the surface of the ball, so, when the pitcher puts spin on it, pressure builds up on one side and decreases on the other, and that imbalance, and the ball curves.
You know, hitting that pitch is one the hardest feats in all of sports.
But, Charles, when you called, I think your question had more to do with statistics.
Yeah.
Let me show you guys what I'm looking at here.
As you see, Dr.
Waldie, this is high-level sabermetrics, but I just don't know what some of these symbols mean.
And you know that I've won the Faculty Fantasy Baseball League two years in a row.
I do.
And, since fantasy baseball is based on statistics, I figured you'd be into sabermetrics.
Oh, absolutely.
It's the only way to pick a winning fantasy team.
How much of our school's supercomputer time is given over to this crunching of baseball stats? I'll never tell.
This stuff is pretty wild.
Very cool changepoint detection.
Do you recognize the person who might have done this work? Give me a little time.
If this person is active in fantasy baseball or sabermetrics, I'll find somebody who knows who he is.
Good.
He said people wanted to use him.
Vick's been under pressure to win all his life.
They were all after a piece of him- coaches, owners, fans.
Was he particularly close to anyone in the organization? No.
Coaches and the other players didn't give a damn about him.
Only what he could do for the team.
The only person that really cared about him was his agent, Richard Clast.
Yeah, Vick trusted him.
Said he wasn't looking for a quick buck.
He was thinking long-term.
And what were Vick's prospects? This was the last year on his contract.
No other teams were interested in picking him up because he hurt his shoulder, plus the two knee surgeries.
He needed to get his game back up.
He said the money he made now would need to last us the next 40 years.
Was there anyone that would have wanted to hurt him? Did he have any enemies? No one stood to gain if he died.
Vick was only valuable if he was playing ball.
Do you know where he got the drugs? Askhis coaches.
To them, he was just a piece of equipment.
We don't give them steroids, and we don't tell them what drugs to take.
But if they use, you benefit.
These are grown men.
They make their own choices.
And, if they don't get caught or busted, you turn a blind eye.
We don't test players unless the league says we have some reason to.
Otherwise, we try not to get into hypotheticals.
Which is never.
Even when a guy who usually benches 225 is suddenly pushing 350.
The team screwed Vick.
He gives them six great years, he plays through an injured shoulder 'cause they need him for a stretch drive, then he ends up on the disabled list.
I understand he was working very hard to get back in the majors? Yeah.
He would have made it, too.
These are good.
Thank you.
Vick was the real deal.
Great guy, and a great baseball player.
Did you know he was taking steroids? He said it was just until he could get his numbers back up.
Thank you.
Most players use now and again.
I'd say, at any given time, This was about Vick's next contract.
It was now or never.
Thank you.
Some would say that there is life after baseball.
Really? What were Vick's options? He was drafted out of high school.
It wasn't like he had another career he could fall back on.
He'd be lucky to get a job making You met his wife.
Think she was going to stick around for that? Hey, can you just give me one second? I'll be right with you.
Great.
What about his kids? They worshiped their baseball hero father.
You think they're going tolook up to some used car salesman? I don't know.
I thought the wife really seemed to care about him.
Well, I might be cynical, but I've seen an awfullot of wives move on after the baseball money dries up.
And the agents? It's my job to take care of my clients, to keep them playing and making money as long as they can.
Obviously, I have to care about their health and well-being.
But with Vick, it was different.
He was actually one of my best friends.
Professor Waldie sent out queries, asking fantasy league players if they've seen similar work and this is what we got back.
Hmm.
Where'd this come from? A Web site called boxscoretimes.
com.
It's for real stats fanatics.
Well, just looking at it, I mean it's gotta be the same guy.
Right? The abbreviations are identical.
Only here, he explains what they stand for.
DB- Distance Batted.
EJ- Elevation of Trajectory.
TB - Thrown Bats.
Thrown Bats? Who is this guy? Oswald Kittner.
He plays in 16 high-stakes fantasy leagues.
Kittner.
Okay.
I'm gonna go tell the FBI.
Now that I know what these abbreviations mean, I may be able to determine whether this math really does reveal drug use.
So, thank you, gentlemen.
Someone gave Kittner's apartment a going over.
We didn't find the computer.
Well, has he shown up anywhere? At work? Anything? He's unemployed.
We got a 25-year-old high school dropout with no bank accounts, no car, no criminal record.
Super, neighbors, no one's seen him for a couple of days.
Might be a blackmailer, but if not, his works' definitely involved somehow.
Incredible.
This Kittner person has basically reinvented the Shiryayev-Roberts changepoint detection procedure to pinpoint steroid use.
And without the need for medical tests.
I mean, this could have major ramifications.
Yeah, right, 'cause there's no way to test for drugs like Thoracyclene and THG.
Once they're metabolized in the body, they're undetectable.
Yeah, the wonders of sabermetrics.
It really is a powerful form of analysis in baseball.
The physical nature of the game involves chance, so the difference between a hit and an out could be millimeters or milliseconds, So, when you have athletic situations involving chance repeated over and over again, a statistical analysis can isolate and reveal human performance.
Well, you know, it wouldn't be the first time math revealed a surprising truth about this sport.
In a 1993 article in The American Statistician, J.
Bennett, using sabermetrics, analyzed Shoeless Joe Jackson's career.
He was able to prove that Jackson played up to his full potential in every one of the 1919 Black Sox series.
So, even though he was accused of throwing the whole series, Jackson was completely innocent, wasn't he? That's right.
Math restored a man's good name and reputation after 70 years.
I find that rather beautiful.
But, you know, this doesn't clear the player of cheating; it rather does just the opposite.
I know.
So, to test if it works, I gathered stats from players generally believed to have used steroids and ran them through Kittner's analysis.
Huh.
What did you find? His work seems to be quite accurate.
watching Blazing Saddles in my pajamas.
This better be good.
It's better than good.
The red cowgirl pjs? Mm-hmm.
Okay.
Okay, uh So Kittner's equations work.
They identify when a player is using perfomance-enhancement drugs.
All right, so, even if people thought Johnston was using They couldn't prove it, and now they can with Kittner's and Kittner could probably even be blackmailing him.
That's right, and when Charles told me that this Kittner person had dropped out of sight, it got me to thinking, displaced people will be drawn to places that meet essential needs.
If you're tired, you need a place to lie down.
If you're thirsty, you need a source of water, And if you play fantasy baseball, you need the Internet.
And of special note here: Tomorrow is the deadline for the winter fantasy draft.
So Kittner needs to plug in his laptop.
Yeah, what's? That's a downtown address? Yeah, that's Little Tokyo.
They have cyber caf\s in the area.
Well, fortunately, human geography is much less immense than that of the cosmos.
You know what this place kind of reminds me of? Let me guess.
Bladerunner.
Yeah.
Exactly.
How do you think Ridley Scott knows what the future is gonna look like? No idea, but Daryl Hannah made one kick-ass cyborg.
Is that? Oswald Kittner? FBI.
Come here.
Come here! Hey! Whoa!? Out of the way.
Don't move! Sorry! Sorry! Sorry! Sorry! Up! Hey.
Was that really necessary? Yeah, it is when you run.
Hands behind your back! Hey, well, wait.
Are you really FBI? Yeah, for real.
Well, at the risk of me getting beat up, uh, can I ask what you're arresting me for? So before you stick me on the next plane down to Guantanamo, can I exercise some legal rights? What, uh, what is this supposed to be? E - mails you sent to Vick Johnston.
What? No way.
Come on, Oswald, I talked to a lot of smart people.
They all know your work.
Well, they're blowing smoke up your skirt.
If you were wearing a skirt.
Anyway, I - I have no idea what this is supposed to be.
Well, then, I'll have to ask you the classic - if you didn't do anything wrong, why'd you run? Because last week I came home and two guys were tearing up my apartment.
So I got the hell out of there.
Your beef monkeys come at me on the street.
I'm not gonna wait around to see if they're legit.
Do you know who broke into your apartment or why? Well, I win a lot at fantasy baseball.
I - I just assumed somebody was trying to sneak a peek at my research.
Well, it must be a pretty cutthroat game of fantasy baseball Actually, it is.
One of the leagues I play in, winner gets 15 grand.
me and my laptop went off the grid.
This is Dr.
Charles Epps.
He's a professor of mathematics up at CalSci.
Him? Yeah.
Him.
Well, then, maybe he can explain all this stuff to you, 'cause all these, these numbers, I - I, it's over my head.
It's funny.
I don't think it is.
It's oddly similar to this work, which you posted on a baseball stats Web site under your own name.
He's the only person using these abbreviations, and it works.
His analysis accurately spots steroid use.
Good Will Hunting.
Yeah, you got me, all right? Yeah, this is my work, and that is exactly what it does, but, I never e-mailed it to Vick Johnston.
I never showed this to anybody.
Why? Why didn't you? It's a significant statistical breakthrough.
It's a significant advantage in fantasy baseball- if nobody else knows about it.
Tech went through his laptop.
It's not the source of the e-mails that Johnston received.
Yeah, see, I mean, I don't see a motive.
I mean, even if he was blackmailing him.
Which I doubt.
He was genuinely surprised to see his work on those e-mails.
Yeah, but what about the break-in at the apartment? It could be they were after his steroid analysis.
That still doesn't tell us who gave Vick Johnston a lethal dose of Thoracyclene, though.
We know yet where they were manufactured? No, still waiting.
All right.
We just gotta get a handle on this kid.
You know, I don't see him opening up to any of us, but he might with someone else.
Um Dr.
Epps, I got your message.
Yeah, how you doing, Oswald? Why don't you follow me in my office.
Yeah.
All right.
So, you know, I wasn't really sure that your attorney would tell you that I called.
Oh, yeah.
No, he doesn't want me talking to you He thinks you're just gathering information for the FBI.
Yeah, well - he's right.
But the FBI just wants to know who knows about your work.
That's all.
Well, I mean, like I already told them, nobody else knows.
There is another reason I wanted to talk to you.
Um, your analysis is amazing.
Really.
It's deep.
It's deep? Wow.
Um Deep's good, right? Deep - yeah, complex.
Elegant, yeah.
That's, well I guess you would know.
Um This stuff is all calculus, right? Yeah.
Guess you studied calculus in high school, right? Oh, no, no, we didn't have it in my school.
No, I learned from, like, library books, uh, stuff other fantasy leaguers did.
So you're self-taught? I guess so.
That's qu that's quite an accomplishment.
Um You ever think about coming to a place like this to actually study math? Well, yeah, but I mean, dude, I don't even have a G.
E.
D.
Dude, you don't even need one.
No, seriously, you could get admitted on the strength of your work alone.
You should at least consider publishing your findings.
Oh, hell, no.
I gotta keep my best stuff secret.
I mean, that's how I win.
Science is about sharing knowledge.
One more reason I'm not a scientist.
Yeah, you are.
You come up with theories, you test them, you make new findings.
Well, maybe I'll have to dust off a shelf for my Nobel Prize.
Hi.
Oh, hey, Pop.
You know where Charlie is? Yeah, he's in school.
Oh, listen, I had two meetings cancel on me this afternoon.
Yeah.
You want to play? Yeah, I wish.
I can't.
I - I gotta, I gotta deal with this case.
Oh, yeah.
The ballplayer.
Yeah.
It's very sad, isn't it? He left a wife, two kids.
You have any idea who killed him? No, I can't figure out a motive.
Maybe blackmail, but the thing is, blackmailers rarely kill, so What? Hmm? What are you doing? Nothing.
I just My last year with the Rangers, I hit.
228 with 36 RBIs.
With steroids, I woulda hit.
260 with 50 ribbbies.
So my backup did.
The guy winds up in the majors, you know? Uh, that would be cheating.
Yeah, I mean, is it cheating if everyone does it? Yes.
We all give up things, Donny.
Yeah? What'd you give up? I don't know.
I One day I was backpacking around Europe, no plans, no worries, all the freedom in the world.
Next thing you know, I got a family and a mortgage and two weeks vacation every year.
You regret any of it? No.
But I do miss the things I gave up for them.
All right.
So tell Chuck I'm looking for him.
Play well.
Hit 'em long.
Will do.
Fantasy leagues are competitive.
I figured if I could come up with a way to spot drug use in players, my trades and drafts would be that much better.
How did you figure that? Um, players that are juicing are more likely to get injured mid-season.
Stats back it up.
And you're sure you didn't tell anybody about your work? Not even my best friends.
I mean, I compete against them, you know? You didn't even hint that specific players were doping? Players that nobody else knew that about? Oh, man.
Did Colby get that report back? Don! Megan! Hey, Oswald thinks he knows who sent the e-mails to Johnston.
You said you didn't tell anyone.
No, I didn't, but I got into an argument with my friend Chris Bronmiller.
Huge fan of Vick Johnston's.
Oh, and you told him that his hero was using steroids? Does he have access to your work? Well, we hang out a lot, and I always leave my laptop around.
Chris Bronmiller, we have a warrant.
Open the door! Bronmiller's apartment gets broken into and he disappears.
No one's seen his for days.
Just like what happened with Kittner.
Unlike Kittner, Bronmiller has a car though.
Think he's living in it? Maybe.
You know, I've heard of a certain Cal Sci professor who's been residing in his car lately.
Fleinhardt? I don't know what Megan sees in that dude anyway.
Some women go for the muscles, some go for the brains.
Bronmiller's car is down here somewhere.
LAPD was told not to touch it.
That's it right there.
Doesn't seem like he's living in it.
Raises the question.
I hate doing this.
Oh, that's a relief.
Something smells.
Looks like we found Chris Bronmiller.
Looks like he's been dead for days.
Sinclair.
We have a dead body, First Street Bridge.
Hey, guys.
Oswald, I've got some bad news here.
Your pal Chris was just found dead.
Oh, God.
Are you serious? Yeah.
Okay Oh, God Oh, God That's so terrible.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry, Oswald.
Just take a breath, okay? Oh man.
This is so messed up.
Who who would do this to him? We don't know.
We didn't find his computer, but we're going to need your help here, pal.
I - I told you I don't know anything.
I don't have a damn clue.
All right, all right, just take a second- get yourself together.
How about his e-mail address? Uh um Chris might have used a cyber cafe account, so it's harder to trace.
I can make up a list of places that he hung out.
That's good.
That'll help.
Chat room cafe in La Crescenta.
E - mail accounts created through their server over the last few months.
I'm checking for credit card accounts in the name of Chris Bronmiller.
Oh, there it is.
Let me see if I can open some of these file attachments.
Oh, yeah, hey, this is Kittner's work.
Yeah? Yeah.
So it was his friend Chris who sent the e-mails to Vick Johnston.
And look at that- he got an e-mail in response.
"Regarding your statistical analysis: interesting stuff.
"I'd like to meet and talk about it.
Signed Vick Johnston.
But it wasn't sent from Johnston's laptop.
I want you to trace it and let us know, okay? Sure, I'll try.
Chris Bronmiller thought he was going to meet his baseball hero.
Yeah, who's dead.
Hey, you know, we have two guest rooms in the house.
Are you sure you want to? No, I'm fine here.
I prefer this.
I just don't want to go home for a while.
Not after what happened to Chris.
Right.
No, I understand.
The FBI still isn't sure who broke into your apartment.
I know.
So, uh what the hell is all this? Uh, cognitive emergence theory.
Ah, of course it is.
I'm attempting to mathematically model how conscious thought emerges from basic neural functions.
Oh, kind of like a sum is greater than its parts? Yeah, that's the basic idea.
That's nice.
Um, you don't have any, like, comics, do you? You know what, I do have something that might interest you.
It's a baseball thing.
Uh my brother Don played in the minor leagues.
And I kept his stats, so You might want to take a look at those.
Stockton Rangers! Yeah.
They were my fantasy minor league team when I was in high school.
Well, then let me ask you something.
Thanks a lot.
Appreciate it.
Finally got the lab results.
They name the manufacturer? There's three companies that manufacture Thoracyclene.
One's in the Philippines, one in France, and one right here, in the L.
A.
area.
Now the stuff we found in Johnston's locker has the chemical signature to link it up to the local firm.
So that proves they manufactured the fatal dose? Well, no, it proves they made the original steroid.
But somebody else could have made the concentrated dose.
Smells good.
All righty.
Here you go.
Thanks.
Here.
Doesn't your friend in the garage want to come in for a bite? Yeah, I offered.
He said he's okay.
You know, I kind of think he's used to being alone.
Oh, yeah? Fantasy baseball.
What a way to make a living.
What do you mean? I think a lot of these guys actually end up working for teams, right? It's true.
Bill James.
Bill James was a self-taught baseball stats fanatic who published his findings.
He now works for the Red Sox.
Hey, Charlie Um, oh, I'm sorry.
I didn't mean to interrupt.
I just wanted to answer Charlie's question.
That's all right.
What question? A baseball question.
Um, about you, actually.
Yeah, just if you'd kept playing, would you have made the majors? So I made two evaluations.
One if you had continued to develop normally, and one if you'd decided to use steroids.
This should be interesting.
Um, so with the 'roids, you probably would have raised your batting average to.
280 with ten to 15 home runs.
Well, so, it sounds like the majors.
Well, "ish" because, well, yeah, your hitting would have improved- your overall value as a player would have diminished.
Why? How so? Well, 'cause Don's value was as a utility player.
You didn't excel at one particular position.
You played several very well.
You were a solid fielder.
Quick mentally and physically and steroids would have messed with that.
Yeah, so, and without the drugs? Uh, it's a bit harder to say.
Um, a lot of major league clubs like to have a few utility guys on the bench- players who are smart and can adapt quickly to different situations.
Yeah, like at the FBI.
Like the FBI.
BRX makes nutritional supplements.
Vitamins, protein powders.
And you manufacture Thoracyclene? One of our chemists created it for use in adolescent males with pituitary malfunction.
People forget that most steroids and sports enhancement drugs also have many legitimate purposes.
They're used to stimulate the growth of bone marrow, as hormone replacements in males and to treat age-related problems in the elderly.
You're the only company in the U.
S.
that manufactures Thoracyclene, correct? We hold the patent here, yes.
Two foreign manufacturers also pay us a licensing fee for the right to produce it as well.
You were originally located in North Carolina, but we understand you ran into some troubles there? The Attorney General was against holistic medicine.
So, we relocated to a state that doesn't have an agenda a against alternative medicine.
So you're saying that investigation had nothing to do with your production of steroids? I had a feeling this was where this was going.
So, I thought I'd save you a little work.
Stacy, bring me that file please.
Our sales records of Thoracyclene as submitted to the FDA.
Every purchase was made by a licensed physician or distributor.
And the only patients who should be receiving it, are young boys with growth disorders.
Found a guy who BRX sells Thoracyclene to you might want to take a look at- Dr.
Thomas Mandel.
Yeah, why him? Specializes in sports medicine.
Apparently treats a lot of college, high school kids.
All right, let's check him out.
to start cutting corners.
The drugs don't do the work for you, man.
They just change your body chemistry so you can work out harder and longer.
The things you pick up in college wrestling, you know.
Yeah, and I admit I was tempted, but the problem is, you start altering your body chemistry as an adolescent, you run the risk of serious, permanent damage.
Like baldness and erectile dysfunction, premature closure of the growth plates.
Too much testosterone can kill brain cells.
It's not worth it, man.
And I didn't even get to gynecomastia yet.
It's enlarged breasts in men.
Aah You worried about violating doctor-patient confidentiality? It's a college facility that's open to all the students and we have the administration's permission to be here.
Nah.
If the good doctor wants privacy, he should work out of his office.
Excuse me.
Can I help you? We just need to check something.
Whoa.
Thoracyclene.
Legal only by a prescription.
And only to treat specific conditions such as unusually small size in children.
It's either working real good or you're in some trouble.
I want my lawyer! I didn't know Vic Johnston.
I never treated him.
Easy enough to confirm.
Just give us a list of the people you did sell steroids to.
That's a violation of confidentiality.
We have half a dozen athletes who said you never examined them or took a medical history.
Yet you did supply them with sports drugs.
Most of them between the age of 17 and 22.
A couple as young as 14.
All they had to do was show up, pay and get a shot.
If I give you a list of people I sell to, what do you give me? Points for cooperation.
Glove down, Monty.
Come on, you guys.
Let's pick it up.
Let's see some hustle.
Come on.
Max Sheveransky? FBI.
Need you to come with us, sir.
What's this about? Vick Johnston.
We know you were his high school coach.
I haven't talked to him in years.
You should know a search warrant's being executed for your home, your car and your office.
Looks like you already know what we're gonna find.
We have witnesses that saw you with Vick Johnston two months ago.
He wanted help.
No one was offering him a contract.
So you supplied him with Thoracyclene? I was the only person he trusted.
He called you two days before he died.
No? No, I don't remember that.
Your phone records remember it.
You spoke to him once for 36 minutes and once for 47.
What about? They play pretty good baseball in federal prisons, you know.
All right.
Vick said he thought he was going to be exposed.
By whom? He wouldn't say.
He just said it was gonna get out.
That if he got caught, he'd have to give them my name to the grand jury.
You tell anyone else about this? Not a soul.
Not even my wife.
What did you do? I didn't know what to do.
And then Vick died.
Yeah, from drugs you gave him.
I don't understand how.
It was the same stuff everybody gets.
I can't help thinking that if I hadn't developed a doping formula, Chris would still be alive.
But that that's not your fault.
Actions can have unintended consequences.
You know, scientists struggle with that.
Scientists? All the time.
Scientific breakthroughs have benefits.
I play fantasy baseball.
But the ability to conceptualize a solution to a problem, it's what applied mathematics is all about, okay? You have that ability.
And you can apply it to other problems.
You're a Good Will Hunting man, not me.
I'm just a loser who likes baseball way too much.
Whether you like to admit it or not, you do also love math.
So BRX sold to the doctor, the doctor sold to the high school coach and the coach sold to Vick Johnston? Yeah, we totally have the chain of supply, but it's still not telling us which one killed Johnston.
And we have no link to the murdered fantasy baseball player.
And both the coach and the doctor have alibis.
When Bronmiller was killed, Sheveransky was in Sacramento and the doctor was in Las Vegas.
Wait a minute.
Only the BRX lab could make the lethal dose.
You know, you're still welcome in my garage.
Yeah, I know.
Don't worry about me.
I'll be okay.
Okay, but Oswald, just stay in touch.
Yeah, of course.
Everyone, stand back! No, no, stay still! Don't move.
It's okay.
I don't think Oh, geez! Look at that.
I guess, uh, they missed.
So I almost get shot, and you guys respond by doing a lot of math.
That's how we roll here at Cal-Sci.
Don thinks that somebody wants to get rid of your doping equations and anybody who knows about them.
And we are trying to determine just who might have that motive.
Right.
Now let me ask you, Oswald.
Are you seeing what I'm seeing? Dude, honestly, all I see is a lot of chalk.
Are the numbers supposed to start glowing at some point? Yeah, actually, I have known certain expressions to take on a shimmering quality.
Ah, so you have.
Look, I'll tell you who has the greatest motive to bury my work.
It's obvious.
It's the drug company that makes the juice.
It's obvious.
Well, thank you, Professor Kittner.
It only took us hours of value assessment to come up with that conclusion and you're saying it's obvious.
Hasn't your brother taught you anything about crime? Isn't it usually the person who stands to lose or gain the most amount of money? Thoracyclene is valuable because there's not test for it.
Of course, you work destroys that value.
Right, and then there's this.
What is this? This is an organizational analysis chart.
We're quantifying the links between the elements of this case.
And note the drug lab.
It's linked to everyone.
Copy of Oswald Kittner's analysis.
Where'd you find this? I've never seen that before.
Mr.
Auster, we've established a chain of purchase that connects you to Vick Johnston.
And this mathematical formula we just found, that's a motive for murder.
Take a look at that.
You printed out the e-mails sent to Chris Bronmiller that set up a place where he was murdered.
I didn't kill anybody, all right? None of this was my idea.
Whoa! Good shot, Bobby! Beautiful, beautiful! Keep that up, we'll get a little bidding war going for you.
Play wherever you want.
Richard Clast? Hi.
Going over a list of your baseball clients.
Ran their stats through your boy Kittner's system.
Okay, I don't know what this is.
I'm not a mathematician.
Is that why you gave it to the president of BRX labs who's a scientist.
He told you what this math could do.
Yeah, I don't know who that is.
Really? 'Cause your phone number's all over his company records.
And almost all your clients are juicing.
So there must be a lot at stake for a guy like you, huh? Yeah, you know what? For a lot of agents.
I think we're finished here.
Thank you.
Whoa, whoa, you're not going anywhere.
You're the only agent who knew about the math application 'cause your client, your best friend, Vick Johnston told you.
Let's go.
Turn around.
Get you hands behind your back.
I found blood on Chris Bronmiller's jacket that doesn't match his DNA.
Somehow, I got a feeling it's going to match yours, isn't it? Let's go.
You know, I loved this game just as much as Vick did.
You're what's wrong with this game.
Hey.
Hey, guys, it's okay.
It's over.
We got him.
What? Yeah, found a gun at this beach house that matched the bullets that were fired at you.
Wait.
So me almost getting shot at actually helped nail this guy? I just hope he gets what he deserves.
My friend Chris was a decent guy.
Oswald, the FBI lab at Quantico wanted to know if you'd agree to consult with them on your formula.
They want to develop it as an investigative tool.
I don't know.
My secret doping stats in the hands of the feds? No, of course, yes.
I'm joking.
Whatever you guys want.
I owe you.
I just feel I should tell you I got a call from Vick's minor league team.
They want me to be their statistician.
Okay, but this work for the FBI could be a really great opportunity for you.
Yeah, look, you can do both.
Look how overworked this guy is.
Your work could be recognized.
You could even publish an article in the American Journal of Statistics.
My boyhood dream come true.
He's got the aptitude and the ability.
He just can't see it for himself.
Hey, you guys see the news? That case of yours is big stuff, Don.
That's right.
We got ourselves a scandal.
And if the FBI can prove the efficacy of Oswald's analysis, it could get even bigger.
Yeah.
You, uh, thirsty? You thirsty? I'll take a beer.
Beer? Three beers? That case of yours bring back memories, does it? Yeah, well, hey, look, you know? It's my first love.
First love, my ass.
What are you talking about? Don't you remember how you got started in baseball? I always loved baseball.
Nah, not really.
Your mother and I got you into Little League because we had to get you stop playing around with that little toy gun that your Uncle Tommy gave you.
Oh, yeah.
What, that was that silver six-shooter.
Yeah, yeah, you were playing with it constantly.
We didn't think it was very healthy, so we figured baseball would get your mind off it, see, and it did for a couple of decades.
I guess so.
Yeah, yeah, you love baseball, but it wasn't your first love.
Hey, don't you remember when you were a kid you used to love to play cops and robbers? Donny, you were always the cop.
Well, then, to Donny Epps, a born cop.
A most excellent one.
I say hear, hear, to that.
Thanks.
Cheers.