VICE (2013) s03e14 Episode Script
Cold War 2.0
(exploding) Narrator: This week on VICE, America's new Cold War with Russia.
(speaking Russian) Victoria Nuland: This is NATO territory, we will defend every inch, don't mess with it.
(speaking Russian) There's no check on what Putin may do.
(theme music playing) Is the Cold War indeed happening with Russia again? This is somebody's backyard, but it's been transformed into the front line.
I grew up in the 1980s, during one of the most politically intense periods of the Cold War.
(Russian music playing) At that time, the world was effectively split in two-- on one side was the Soviet Union and its allies, called the Warsaw Pact, and on the other side was the United States and its allies in NATO.
Now the divide was so impenetrable that it became known as the Iron Curtain.
No one could travel back and forth between the two and we couldn't even get reliable information about what was actually happening on the other side.
All we knew for sure was that both the US and the Soviet Union were amassing nuclear arsenals that could destroy the world many times over.
And that fear dominated everything.
Now one of the only things that held off total global thermonuclear war was the concept of MAD, otherwise known as Mutually Assured Destruction, which, simply put, is the military strategy that when one side launches a strike, the other automatically launches a counterstrike, and the end result is total global annihilation.
Now propaganda wars pitted one culture against the other, and bloody conflicts broke out in so-called proxy wars in places like the Congo, Nicaragua, and Vietnam.
Finally, in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended.
General Secretary Gorbachev, tear down this wall! (people cheering) Smith: As trust between the two superpowers improved, the Doomsday Clock, meant to measure how close we were to nuclear war, ticked back to the safest point in its 40 year history.
But over the last few years, events across Europe have sent relations between the US and Russia into a tailspin.
In fact, Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader who helped end the Cold War, is warning that a new one is just beginning.
Now, as of June 2015, the atomic scientists who calculate the Doomsday Clock have set it forward again to three minutes to midnight, the second closest we've ever been to Armageddon.
(people roaring) Smith: Now to find out what's actually pushing these two superpowers back to the brink, we wanted to speak to the major players from both sides.
So we begin this VICE Special Report in the nerve center of the Russian federation, the Kremlin.
(orchestral music playing) So the Cold War rhetoric between America and Russia is really heating up lately.
In America, there's headlines everywhere saying, "Is the Cold War indeed happening with Russia again?" And in Russia they're saying, "Yeah, it's already happening" because of the Ukraine, NATO, economic sanctions leading to the ruble being depressed, oil being at half of what it used to be-- they see as economic warfare.
So we're here in the Kremlin.
We're going to talk to politicians, uh, people in the military, and people in the propaganda industries to see what's really happening here, on the ground, in Russia.
The first official we interviewed is one of the most senior figures in Russian politics, Sergey Lavrov.
He's been Foreign Minister since 2004, and before that was ambassador to the UN.
We've noticed in the last year a very disturbing rise in, let's say, Cold War rhetoric.
We have Russia on one side, America on the other.
Obviously there's Ukraine, there's sanctions, there's the problem with oil.
What else? Well, I think it started much earlier.
After the Cold War, there was a unique chance to go the way which was different from the confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Treaty.
But after the Soviet Union ceased to exist, the Western countries opted for NATO to be the center where they concentrated all their efforts.
And that's where the problem started, I believe.
Smith: Now the problem here for Russia is that after the Soviet Union collapsed, the Warsaw Pact dissolved, but NATO didn't.
In fact, it continues to expand eastward across Europe.
Russia sees Ukraine as a critical buffer state against Western power.
So obviously Ukraine is a touch point.
Or it's sort of a proxy war almost.
I don't want Ukraine to become a proxy war, though sometimes we have an impression that Ukraine is just a very small figure in the chess game, and the chess game is to contain Russia.
So Ukraine is seen as sort of a pawn in a containment strategy.
Yeah, I would say that this is very close - to what we feel.
A pawn.
- Mm-hmm.
Now when Lavrov brings up "containment," he's talking specifically about the Cold War-era approach to global security, where containment meant that instead of actually attacking the Soviet Union directly, we'd work to contain the spread of its borders and therefore its influence over other countries.
Now working in Russia's favor, is the fact that Ukraine is both demographically and politically split.
In the west, most Ukrainians see themselves as part of Europe.
But in the east, there are many Russian speakers with loyalties to Moscow.
And as VICE correspondent Simon Ostrovsky saw firsthand, the decision about whether to align with Putin or the NATO powers has literally torn the country apart.
(rhythmic pounding) (chainsaw buzzing) Simon Ostrovsky: Last winter, tens of thousands of protesters descended on this square in central Kiev to protest the decision of the former president Viktor Yanukovych, to suddenly switch tracks from integration with the European Union to a closer relationship with the Russian Federation.
(rhythmic pounding) Man: Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo.
(protesters shouting) Ostrovsky: They stayed on the square for months until they were able to push him out of office, but not before over 100 of the protesters were killed here.
It was at that point, when Ukraine was without a government and without a command structure that Vladimir Putin decided to move his troops into Crimea and eventually to annex the peninsula, sparking the war in Eastern Ukraine.
(men shouting) Smith: Now in the chaos that followed, pro-Russian communities in Eastern Ukraine took up arms and declared themselves independent republics.
And that fueled the ongoing conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives.
The largest city in separatist-controlled territory is Donetsk.
And it holds a major strategic position, which is the region's only international airport.
(shouting in Russian) Now the city itself was the scene of fierce combat and the suburbs that surround the airport were transformed into the front line of an increasingly bloody battle.
Now this bridge outside Donetsk has been held by Ukrainian government forces since the beginning of the conflict.
And the commander there agreed to take us to the front line during a shaky ceasefire with the separatists.
(speaking Russian) Ostrovsky: Separatist lines are just 200 yards away from here.
This is one of the furthest positions into separatist-held territory that the Ukrainians have managed to take.
It's the town of Pisky.
This is somebody's backyard, but it's been transformed into the front line and a war zone.
(gun fires) (gun firing) (speaking Russian) Ceasefire or no ceasefire, you've got to be pretty stupid to walk up to the Ukrainian positions here.
Everybody's armed to the teeth.
This is the main road leading out of Donetsk.
This is the side where the pro-Russia forces are.
Right now it's completely deserted.
There's no traffic here.
I mean we look suspicious as fuck right now.
(speaking Russian) Smith: The first pro-Russian fighter we met wasn't shy at all about telling us exactly why he was fighting.
(speaking Russian) Ostrovsky: Because the Ukrainians have been able to hold the airport for as long as they have, this adjacent neighborhood has taken a hell of a pounding.
(speaking Russian) Smith: The pro-Russian rebels used this neighborhood to shell the airport, and they drew heavy fire in return.
As a result, the Ukrainian government ended up destroying the homes of many of its own people.
Immediately following the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, the United States, along with Europe and Canada, imposed what became the first of three rounds of economic sanctions against Russia.
Russian aggression in Europe recalls the days when large nations trampled small ones in pursuit of territorial ambition.
Smith: But even as the coalition of nations imposing the sanctions grew, the Kremlin became increasingly defiant.
(speaking Russian) Now the sanctions, together with an unexpected drop in oil prices, sent Russia sliding towards recession.
Today it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters.
Smith: And in December of 2014, the Russian ruble went into free fall.
With ordinary Russian citizens taking the brunt of what they saw as economic warfare.
(speaking Russian) Smith: And as the currency dropped, people rushed to stores to lock in the value of their money by purchasing electronics and other consumer durables.
(speaking Russian) Smith: Now to find out more about the government's response to Russia's economic challenges, we sat down with one of the president's most trusted officials, Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Peskov, sometimes called the Voice of Putin.
So what's the feeling in the street or what's the feeling in the country here in Russia? Well, oil prices is not good.
Plus to that, plus to that, we have consequences of global political situation.
I mean, the problem is that certain countries, they want to use Ukraine to weaken Russia, to get Russia deprived of possibilities for economic development.
So you have an economic crisis already and then you have sanctions on top of that.
Is it seen as aggression or aggressive? America or NATO being aggressive against Russia? Why they try to blame everything that concerns Ukraine for Russia.
They say that, "You are guilty because of Ukraine.
" - We say, "Could you explain this, please?" - Right.
"No, you are guilty because we say.
" This is the approach.
And it is unacceptable for us.
We feel return of, let's say, mood of confrontation.
And is that dangerous, do you think? - It's dangerous.
It's dangerous.
- Yeah.
I mean, all this mess about civil war in Ukraine.
Smith: Now that quote, unquote, "mess" has had hellish consequences for the people of Eastern Ukraine who are now cut off from aid from all sides.
For example, this arena used to be one of Europe's premier hockey venues (announcer speaking Russian) but now is a distribution center for what little food remains.
(speaking Russian) And as desperation grows, tempers are beginning to fray.
(speaking Russian) Now in the absence of a functioning government, the pro-Russian rebels are scrambling to provide for the civilian population.
(speaking Russian) (Ostrovsky speaking Russian) Smith: And when you travel just outside the city, you realize exactly why they feel abandoned.
Because stopped just at the city limits were long convoys of trucks filled with aid from NGOs and other charitable organizations.
(speaks Russian) Ostrovsky: Well, I'm seeing just bags and bags of oatmeal in here.
And every truck's got something different in it.
It's basically just food.
(speaking Russian) Smith: In order to learn more about the strategy behind the blockade, we spoke to Ivan Yakovina, a Russian journalist who lives in the Ukraine who's been a rare voice of dissent in the Russian press.
(Ivan speaking) Smith: Now the reason why Putin can't let that happen is that any admission that Russia is officially involved in Eastern Ukraine would spur the international community to clamp down even harder.
So it's not surprising that many of the fighters we approached were hostile to the foreign press.
(speaking Russian) However not all the rebels were so reluctant to talk.
(speaking Russian) Mm-hmm.
Smith: Now, the presence of Russian soldiers in Ukraine has long been a bone of contention between Washington and Moscow, with both sides desperate to control the story.
(speaking Russian) Russia's soldiers, tanks, air defense and artillery support and fight alongside separatists.
Russia has to stop lying and has to stop fueling this conflict.
At the very highest level, there is an understanding that this is as much a battle over information as boots on the ground.
And when we met with Vice President Joe Biden here at the VICE headquarters in New York City, he warned us that Putin's government is using its control over Russian-language media to mislead the public.
The Russian people don't believe there's any Russian military in Ukraine.
They don't believe Putin is being aggressive in Ukraine.
They don't want him to be.
When body bags started going back home of Russian soldiers, you saw what the media in Russia did.
Immediately clamped down on, arrested anybody who talked about it, - mentioned it, to try to shut it down.
- Hmm.
I don't think that's gonna work.
It cannot be suppressed, the news and information, from the Russian people for an indefinite period of time, what's going on.
And they're soon gonna learn that the reason for the drop in the ruble is in part because the sanctions have had a significant impact.
And there's a reason why we had the sanctions, why the international community stayed together on it.
Because of Ukraine.
Because of Ukraine.
And because, more-- it's not just Ukraine.
It's about what happens in the rest of Europe if we turned a blind eye.
If Putin is able to say, "Where there are Russian speakers, I have an ob--" Does that sound familiar? - Yeah.
- "Where there are Russian speakers, "I have an obligation as a Russian leader to protect their interests.
" You're-- Nazi Germany.
We think any nation in Europe has their own independent choice whether to join an association with any other nation.
That is the principle that Putin is working very hard to break without his own people knowing it.
- Mm-hmm.
- And so if you notice, Russian media's gotten very sophisticated.
(speaking Russian) primarily from television and the state controls all three of the main TV channels.
And in reality, the Kremlin has a heavy influence over the entire media industry.
Now when you go to Russia, it doesn't take long to see just how well this propaganda machine is working.
(speaking Russian) However, it's not only the Russian media that's amping up the rhetoric.
It's ours too.
Right now, Putin is winking at Joseph Stalin as Russian expansionism is on the march.
Anchorwoman: He wants to bring down NATO, he wants to show the United States to no longer be a superpower.
I think they want revenge.
Frankly, we've got to take a tougher stand.
The man is clearly a sociopath.
He has the ambition to restore, you know, the glory of the Russian empire.
Now keeping in mind that Russia and America are the world's two biggest nuclear superpowers, together owning more than 90, nine-zero, percent of all nuclear warheads, the stakes in this game of brinksmanship are insanely high.
So we wanted to get answers from the leader with perhaps the greatest power on earth to influence the situation, the President of the United States of America.
Don't you see it as dangerous where you have anti-American Cold War rhetoric, and you have state-run media, so you have the rise of not just Cold War rhetoric-- war rhetoric.
And then here we have the rise of war rhetoric too.
We have some politicians, but a lot of media, saying, "Well, let's go in there and let's do this.
" And I worry that at a certain point, you can't walk that horse back into the barn.
What Putin's doing with state-run media and the suppression of civil society and the suppression of the Internet and the suppression of dissenting voices is obviously entirely different from what's happening here.
I mean, we've got a First Amendment and there is a multiplicity of voices.
Part of what happens when you have state-run media-- the Russian economy is taking a hammer blow because of their incursions into Ukraine.
It's terrible for the future of Russia, but because ordinary Russians aren't getting good information, there is no check on what Putin may do.
We're raising the costs of what he is doing in Ukraine to incredibly high levels where, rationally, they would do something different, but he is not necessarily operating based on those cost-benefit analyses because right now he's still popular.
Obviously if there was state-run media in the United States, whoever the president was would have the ability to make whatever screwy policies they had look good as well.
Now as it turns out, Russia has a media outlet here in the United States that is actually bankrolled by the Kremlin.
The news channel RT, founded as Russia Today, broadcasts in more than 100 countries, including the US, where it markets itself as an alternative voice to mainstream media for American audiences.
And we met with RT's editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan to discuss the role of media in this current crisis.
Isn't it a risky game for media to stoke the fires even more and more? Because then the public Of course it is yeah.
gets more and more frenzied.
And then if something were to happen, politically, it's harder to rein back in.
Look at the plane.
The MH17.
Smith: Now the plane she's referring to here is Malaysia Airlines flight 17, which crashed in Eastern Ukraine in July of 2014, killing all aboard.
Now much of the world immediately concluded that the plane had been shot down by Russian-made weapons.
However Kremlin loyalists have denied this from day one.
Margarita Simonyan: I assume that in the States, more or less everyone thinks that it's all Russia's fault.
Why do they think so? Because this is what media have been telling them.
MH17 was blown out of the sky by pro-Russian separatists.
Of course Vladimir Putin is supplying these heavy weapons to the terrorists, so he is directly responsible.
It's very clear that there are Russian fingerprints all over this weaponry.
Simonyan: Although no investigation has been held yet, the media posted pictures of Putin with taglines "Putin's Bomb" or whatever.
Vladimir Putin is literally getting away with murder.
If in a month or two, for some reason, Obama wants to stop it and lift the sanctions and become friends with Putin again, he already can't do it.
In the news, you see a lot of stuff that is pretty much, like, Cold War.
It wasn't always like that.
Mm-hmm.
- In the '90s, it was completely different.
- Sure.
I mean, we were in love with the United States in the '90s, all of us.
We all wanted to go to the States, to study in the States, to stay in the States.
So what happened? You bombed Belgrade.
- Right.
- That was the end of it.
- That was it.
- Absolutely.
Bingo.
Just one month.
Completely.
The whole nation, I mean Russians, turned away from the US and it has been like that ever since.
Smith: For Russians, NATO's bombing of Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, became a powerful symbol of Western aggression.
In 1999, in the name of stopping mass killings in Kosovo, the US and our NATO allies acted without the authorization of the UN Security Council for the first time in history, knowing that Russia would have vetoed the resolution.
Now the NATO campaign succeeded in ending the war, but it also showed Moscow that NATO could pose a very real threat in Russia's own backyard.
Vladimir Putin took office just a few months later, promising to restore Russia's military strength.
And the escalation that he began 15 years ago has been building to a confrontation with NATO ever since.
Last year on VICE, we saw firsthand the firepower that NATO has built up along its Arctic border with Russia.
Colonel Tormod Heier, a Norwegian military commander, explained to us how NATO troops are preparing for a potential Russian incursion.
Smith: Now what this means is that a blowup on this remote frontier would actually have serious global consequences.
Because Article 5 requires NATO to respond collectively to an attack on any member.
And ever since Russia's annexation of Crimea, the countries on NATO's eastern flank are building up their forces as a deterrent.
NATO air defenses in the Baltic states have had their hands full.
These fighter pilots in Lithuania are flying nearly constant intercept missions to counter the massive increase in Russian violations of Baltic airspace over the past year.
And they have reason to be anxious because just like the Ukraine, these Baltic countries are former Soviet republics with large Russian-speaking populations.
And as Moscow orders military drills and over flights next to their borders, many in the Baltics worry that they could be Putin's next target.
(engine revving) Ostrovsky: These Lithuanian Special Forces, they're part of NATO's new Rapid Reaction Force.
NATO's going to bring from across the alliance to the eastern countries on Russia's frontier in order to counter what they say is a newly aggressive Russia.
These are Lithuania's elite of the elite.
This is going to be a raid scenario.
The players are three by tactical land rovers, a sniper team, and also we'll have a heavy weapons support by ATVs using the 60mm mortars.
Are they blanks or are they firing live rounds? Negative.
They're firing live rounds.
(guns firing) Smith: Now these drills reflect NATO's deepening concern about the potential for wider conflict in Eastern Europe.
The biggest point here is that we have to identify threats already existing, and also keep in mind that the new threats might come.
Is there anybody you're thinking of exactly? Well, we have our neighbors inciting hot spots right now in Ukraine.
I believe we're talking more or less about the same-- same folk.
So you want to make sure that the Russians know that you're ready if they decide to fight.
I think they know we have a very strong will to fight.
We will do everything we can to avoid World War III, because that's basically-- I believe it's going to be the end of what we know as mankind.
Smith: But these aren't just the words of a soldier preparing for war.
The president of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, echoed this exact sentiment to us.
Do you seriously believe that Russia could attack a NATO country, even though that could potentially trigger World War III? Smith: In September of 2014, President Obama went to Estonia to reassure the Baltic states that they wouldn't be fighting alone.
We will be here for Estonia, we will be here for Latvia, we will be here for Lithuania.
You lost your independence once before.
With NATO, you will never lose it again.
Smith: And President Obama is now backing up that promise.
There are American soldiers on the ground in the Baltic states right now.
All right, roll up.
(speaking) NATO's current troop deployment in Europe is at its biggest force level since the Cold War.
Okay, 2-2, you can stop right here.
That includes the expansion of its tactical Response Force from 13,000 to over 30,000 troops.
And much like the Russian fighters who wouldn't admit that they were actually sent by the Kremlin, the US troops we met there wouldn't commit to an objective either.
Ostrovsky: When you're training these men here in Lithuania, so close to Russia, what do you think you're actually training them for? I'm training my soldiers to learn how to fight as a platoon and a company, sir.
We're partnered with the Lithuanians so that we can build those relationships and work on that NATO alliance.
Smith: Now while the deployment of these troops might seem trivial in the grand scheme of things, or just part of a small regional strategy, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland explained to us that they're actually a critical part of a larger geopolitical chess game.
The decisions that NATO took to deploy on land and sea and air in the Baltic States were a direct response to the little green men that we saw very quickly in Crimea and in Eastern Ukraine, and were designed to say to Russia, "This is NATO territory.
This is Article 5 territory.
"We will defend every inch.
Don't mess with it.
" What we're trying to do is advance the same policy that we've had for 25 years, which is it's in our interest, it's in the rest of Europe's interest to have a Europe that's increasingly whole, free, and at peace, and these moves made by the Kremlin undercut and threaten this compact that we've had for all of these years.
Smith: However, in Russia, NATO's presence in Eastern Europe is seen as highly provocative.
Now to better understand Russia's point of view towards NATO, we spoke to their former NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin, who is now the Deputy Prime Minister and whose duties include overseeing the military.
Rogozin has won huge popularity in Russia for his massive overhaul of the Russian military and his aggressive behavior.
And, true to form, Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin turned our interview into a miniature show of force at a shooting range near the Kremlin.
(speaking Russian) All right.
(men clapping) Bravo.
(speaking Russian) You used to be, before being vice-premier, the ambassador to NATO.
What's the thinking in Russia towards NATO? (speaking Russian) Smith: Rogozin is currently overseeing a military whose budget has nearly doubled in the past decade alone.
And today, the Kremlin is spending hundreds of billions of dollars on modernizing both its conventional and nuclear weapons.
So you believe that NATO is moving aggressively towards Russia, and then Russia then has to defend itself? (speaking Russian) Now Russia's biggest grievance with NATO is the planned deployment of missile defense systems into Eastern Europe, which they see as their equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, just in reverse.
The Cuban Missile Crisis was the most terrifying moment of the Cold War.
In 1962, Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev deployed nuclear-tipped missiles 90 miles from the US mainland.
And only after a 13-day standoff, the weapons were removed.
But we came frighteningly close to all out nuclear war.
For Alexei Pushkov, Head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian Duma, the parallel is quite clear.
- Everybody in America was aware - Mm-hmm.
- that Soviet missiles appeared on Cuba.
- Yeah.
- But, uh, since that time, it never happened.
- Right.
On the other hand, the United States are enlarging NATO up to our borders.
And so, Russians feel this threat.
(speaking Russian) It is not Russia that tries to place its anti-ballistic missile systems that will be used at neutralizing the American nuclear potentials somewhere in Central America.
We are not doing this.
But we know that the United States have quite large plans to have this system placed in Turkey and Romania.
Poland is discussed.
So these weapons are being moved closer to Russian borders to neutralize Russian nuclear potential and to make it vulnerable to political and military pressures.
Smith: Now because of the perceived threat from these NATO installations, Russia is strengthening its own system and making a display of its capabilities all along its borders.
Just this March, Russia staged a huge new military exercise with 76,000 troops, 65 naval ships, 15 submarines and over 200 aircraft.
And you don't have to be a statesman or a general to understand the message that all of this military hardware is supposed to convey.
(speaking Russian) Now we've seen this season on VICE that there's no shortage of serious issues that demand our attention.
We've covered Ebola, climate change, terrorism, and our wars in the Middle East.
But the reason why we made this special tonight is that it's one of the most complex and urgent issues facing humanity today.
In March, the Kremlin deployed short-range missiles to Kaliningrad on Lithuania's border.
In April, the first US troops hit the ground in Ukraine to advise their military on the conflict, putting US troops only a few hundred miles from pro-Russian forces.
Meanwhile, Russia has increased its forces on the Ukrainian border to their highest levels of the year.
And as we filmed this today, a new round of heavy fighting has broken out around Donetsk, shattering the ceasefire.
Obama: As we've seen again in recent days, Russian forces continue to operate in Eastern Ukraine violating Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
All of these signs point to a complete collapse in our relationship with Russia and a return to the terrifying Cold War logic that says the only way to keep your country safe is to have more weapons, and be more aggressive than your enemy.
Doesn't it feel in a way that we're going backwards? I think that's one of the reasons why we're here, is we're very concerned.
Because I grew up at the end of the Cold War and I have no desire to go back.
How do we stop that from happening? We have to be wise enough in order to sit together and in order to reestablish the system of coexistence.
Otherwise-- otherwise we have this wild, wild West.
Smith: But we have to remember that we've figured out how to solve this problem before.
In the late 1980s, leaders on both sides realized that the only sane option was to work together and step back from the brink.
Hopefully today's leaders will learn from our past and back away from this trajectory towards overt confrontation.
You know, there's a constant wrestling match between fear and hope.
And, you know, I think that because of what's happening in Ukraine and the way it's all in your living room in a way that used to be very distant, that it is easier to tap into people's fears and to potentially get into bad decisions around the use of military force and the rhetoric of war.
Now it's imperative that the rhetoric of war does not triumph, that sanity prevails, and that we soon begin the de-escalation process that we know is our only solution.
Now we understand that it may be hard and politically costly for leaders to salvage this broken relationship.
But we also know the cost if they fail to act.
(clock ticks)
(speaking Russian) Victoria Nuland: This is NATO territory, we will defend every inch, don't mess with it.
(speaking Russian) There's no check on what Putin may do.
(theme music playing) Is the Cold War indeed happening with Russia again? This is somebody's backyard, but it's been transformed into the front line.
I grew up in the 1980s, during one of the most politically intense periods of the Cold War.
(Russian music playing) At that time, the world was effectively split in two-- on one side was the Soviet Union and its allies, called the Warsaw Pact, and on the other side was the United States and its allies in NATO.
Now the divide was so impenetrable that it became known as the Iron Curtain.
No one could travel back and forth between the two and we couldn't even get reliable information about what was actually happening on the other side.
All we knew for sure was that both the US and the Soviet Union were amassing nuclear arsenals that could destroy the world many times over.
And that fear dominated everything.
Now one of the only things that held off total global thermonuclear war was the concept of MAD, otherwise known as Mutually Assured Destruction, which, simply put, is the military strategy that when one side launches a strike, the other automatically launches a counterstrike, and the end result is total global annihilation.
Now propaganda wars pitted one culture against the other, and bloody conflicts broke out in so-called proxy wars in places like the Congo, Nicaragua, and Vietnam.
Finally, in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended.
General Secretary Gorbachev, tear down this wall! (people cheering) Smith: As trust between the two superpowers improved, the Doomsday Clock, meant to measure how close we were to nuclear war, ticked back to the safest point in its 40 year history.
But over the last few years, events across Europe have sent relations between the US and Russia into a tailspin.
In fact, Mikhail Gorbachev, the Soviet leader who helped end the Cold War, is warning that a new one is just beginning.
Now, as of June 2015, the atomic scientists who calculate the Doomsday Clock have set it forward again to three minutes to midnight, the second closest we've ever been to Armageddon.
(people roaring) Smith: Now to find out what's actually pushing these two superpowers back to the brink, we wanted to speak to the major players from both sides.
So we begin this VICE Special Report in the nerve center of the Russian federation, the Kremlin.
(orchestral music playing) So the Cold War rhetoric between America and Russia is really heating up lately.
In America, there's headlines everywhere saying, "Is the Cold War indeed happening with Russia again?" And in Russia they're saying, "Yeah, it's already happening" because of the Ukraine, NATO, economic sanctions leading to the ruble being depressed, oil being at half of what it used to be-- they see as economic warfare.
So we're here in the Kremlin.
We're going to talk to politicians, uh, people in the military, and people in the propaganda industries to see what's really happening here, on the ground, in Russia.
The first official we interviewed is one of the most senior figures in Russian politics, Sergey Lavrov.
He's been Foreign Minister since 2004, and before that was ambassador to the UN.
We've noticed in the last year a very disturbing rise in, let's say, Cold War rhetoric.
We have Russia on one side, America on the other.
Obviously there's Ukraine, there's sanctions, there's the problem with oil.
What else? Well, I think it started much earlier.
After the Cold War, there was a unique chance to go the way which was different from the confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Treaty.
But after the Soviet Union ceased to exist, the Western countries opted for NATO to be the center where they concentrated all their efforts.
And that's where the problem started, I believe.
Smith: Now the problem here for Russia is that after the Soviet Union collapsed, the Warsaw Pact dissolved, but NATO didn't.
In fact, it continues to expand eastward across Europe.
Russia sees Ukraine as a critical buffer state against Western power.
So obviously Ukraine is a touch point.
Or it's sort of a proxy war almost.
I don't want Ukraine to become a proxy war, though sometimes we have an impression that Ukraine is just a very small figure in the chess game, and the chess game is to contain Russia.
So Ukraine is seen as sort of a pawn in a containment strategy.
Yeah, I would say that this is very close - to what we feel.
A pawn.
- Mm-hmm.
Now when Lavrov brings up "containment," he's talking specifically about the Cold War-era approach to global security, where containment meant that instead of actually attacking the Soviet Union directly, we'd work to contain the spread of its borders and therefore its influence over other countries.
Now working in Russia's favor, is the fact that Ukraine is both demographically and politically split.
In the west, most Ukrainians see themselves as part of Europe.
But in the east, there are many Russian speakers with loyalties to Moscow.
And as VICE correspondent Simon Ostrovsky saw firsthand, the decision about whether to align with Putin or the NATO powers has literally torn the country apart.
(rhythmic pounding) (chainsaw buzzing) Simon Ostrovsky: Last winter, tens of thousands of protesters descended on this square in central Kiev to protest the decision of the former president Viktor Yanukovych, to suddenly switch tracks from integration with the European Union to a closer relationship with the Russian Federation.
(rhythmic pounding) Man: Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo.
(protesters shouting) Ostrovsky: They stayed on the square for months until they were able to push him out of office, but not before over 100 of the protesters were killed here.
It was at that point, when Ukraine was without a government and without a command structure that Vladimir Putin decided to move his troops into Crimea and eventually to annex the peninsula, sparking the war in Eastern Ukraine.
(men shouting) Smith: Now in the chaos that followed, pro-Russian communities in Eastern Ukraine took up arms and declared themselves independent republics.
And that fueled the ongoing conflict that has already claimed thousands of lives.
The largest city in separatist-controlled territory is Donetsk.
And it holds a major strategic position, which is the region's only international airport.
(shouting in Russian) Now the city itself was the scene of fierce combat and the suburbs that surround the airport were transformed into the front line of an increasingly bloody battle.
Now this bridge outside Donetsk has been held by Ukrainian government forces since the beginning of the conflict.
And the commander there agreed to take us to the front line during a shaky ceasefire with the separatists.
(speaking Russian) Ostrovsky: Separatist lines are just 200 yards away from here.
This is one of the furthest positions into separatist-held territory that the Ukrainians have managed to take.
It's the town of Pisky.
This is somebody's backyard, but it's been transformed into the front line and a war zone.
(gun fires) (gun firing) (speaking Russian) Ceasefire or no ceasefire, you've got to be pretty stupid to walk up to the Ukrainian positions here.
Everybody's armed to the teeth.
This is the main road leading out of Donetsk.
This is the side where the pro-Russia forces are.
Right now it's completely deserted.
There's no traffic here.
I mean we look suspicious as fuck right now.
(speaking Russian) Smith: The first pro-Russian fighter we met wasn't shy at all about telling us exactly why he was fighting.
(speaking Russian) Ostrovsky: Because the Ukrainians have been able to hold the airport for as long as they have, this adjacent neighborhood has taken a hell of a pounding.
(speaking Russian) Smith: The pro-Russian rebels used this neighborhood to shell the airport, and they drew heavy fire in return.
As a result, the Ukrainian government ended up destroying the homes of many of its own people.
Immediately following the annexation of Crimea in March 2014, the United States, along with Europe and Canada, imposed what became the first of three rounds of economic sanctions against Russia.
Russian aggression in Europe recalls the days when large nations trampled small ones in pursuit of territorial ambition.
Smith: But even as the coalition of nations imposing the sanctions grew, the Kremlin became increasingly defiant.
(speaking Russian) Now the sanctions, together with an unexpected drop in oil prices, sent Russia sliding towards recession.
Today it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters.
Smith: And in December of 2014, the Russian ruble went into free fall.
With ordinary Russian citizens taking the brunt of what they saw as economic warfare.
(speaking Russian) Smith: And as the currency dropped, people rushed to stores to lock in the value of their money by purchasing electronics and other consumer durables.
(speaking Russian) Smith: Now to find out more about the government's response to Russia's economic challenges, we sat down with one of the president's most trusted officials, Deputy Chief of Staff Dmitry Peskov, sometimes called the Voice of Putin.
So what's the feeling in the street or what's the feeling in the country here in Russia? Well, oil prices is not good.
Plus to that, plus to that, we have consequences of global political situation.
I mean, the problem is that certain countries, they want to use Ukraine to weaken Russia, to get Russia deprived of possibilities for economic development.
So you have an economic crisis already and then you have sanctions on top of that.
Is it seen as aggression or aggressive? America or NATO being aggressive against Russia? Why they try to blame everything that concerns Ukraine for Russia.
They say that, "You are guilty because of Ukraine.
" - We say, "Could you explain this, please?" - Right.
"No, you are guilty because we say.
" This is the approach.
And it is unacceptable for us.
We feel return of, let's say, mood of confrontation.
And is that dangerous, do you think? - It's dangerous.
It's dangerous.
- Yeah.
I mean, all this mess about civil war in Ukraine.
Smith: Now that quote, unquote, "mess" has had hellish consequences for the people of Eastern Ukraine who are now cut off from aid from all sides.
For example, this arena used to be one of Europe's premier hockey venues (announcer speaking Russian) but now is a distribution center for what little food remains.
(speaking Russian) And as desperation grows, tempers are beginning to fray.
(speaking Russian) Now in the absence of a functioning government, the pro-Russian rebels are scrambling to provide for the civilian population.
(speaking Russian) (Ostrovsky speaking Russian) Smith: And when you travel just outside the city, you realize exactly why they feel abandoned.
Because stopped just at the city limits were long convoys of trucks filled with aid from NGOs and other charitable organizations.
(speaks Russian) Ostrovsky: Well, I'm seeing just bags and bags of oatmeal in here.
And every truck's got something different in it.
It's basically just food.
(speaking Russian) Smith: In order to learn more about the strategy behind the blockade, we spoke to Ivan Yakovina, a Russian journalist who lives in the Ukraine who's been a rare voice of dissent in the Russian press.
(Ivan speaking) Smith: Now the reason why Putin can't let that happen is that any admission that Russia is officially involved in Eastern Ukraine would spur the international community to clamp down even harder.
So it's not surprising that many of the fighters we approached were hostile to the foreign press.
(speaking Russian) However not all the rebels were so reluctant to talk.
(speaking Russian) Mm-hmm.
Smith: Now, the presence of Russian soldiers in Ukraine has long been a bone of contention between Washington and Moscow, with both sides desperate to control the story.
(speaking Russian) Russia's soldiers, tanks, air defense and artillery support and fight alongside separatists.
Russia has to stop lying and has to stop fueling this conflict.
At the very highest level, there is an understanding that this is as much a battle over information as boots on the ground.
And when we met with Vice President Joe Biden here at the VICE headquarters in New York City, he warned us that Putin's government is using its control over Russian-language media to mislead the public.
The Russian people don't believe there's any Russian military in Ukraine.
They don't believe Putin is being aggressive in Ukraine.
They don't want him to be.
When body bags started going back home of Russian soldiers, you saw what the media in Russia did.
Immediately clamped down on, arrested anybody who talked about it, - mentioned it, to try to shut it down.
- Hmm.
I don't think that's gonna work.
It cannot be suppressed, the news and information, from the Russian people for an indefinite period of time, what's going on.
And they're soon gonna learn that the reason for the drop in the ruble is in part because the sanctions have had a significant impact.
And there's a reason why we had the sanctions, why the international community stayed together on it.
Because of Ukraine.
Because of Ukraine.
And because, more-- it's not just Ukraine.
It's about what happens in the rest of Europe if we turned a blind eye.
If Putin is able to say, "Where there are Russian speakers, I have an ob--" Does that sound familiar? - Yeah.
- "Where there are Russian speakers, "I have an obligation as a Russian leader to protect their interests.
" You're-- Nazi Germany.
We think any nation in Europe has their own independent choice whether to join an association with any other nation.
That is the principle that Putin is working very hard to break without his own people knowing it.
- Mm-hmm.
- And so if you notice, Russian media's gotten very sophisticated.
(speaking Russian) primarily from television and the state controls all three of the main TV channels.
And in reality, the Kremlin has a heavy influence over the entire media industry.
Now when you go to Russia, it doesn't take long to see just how well this propaganda machine is working.
(speaking Russian) However, it's not only the Russian media that's amping up the rhetoric.
It's ours too.
Right now, Putin is winking at Joseph Stalin as Russian expansionism is on the march.
Anchorwoman: He wants to bring down NATO, he wants to show the United States to no longer be a superpower.
I think they want revenge.
Frankly, we've got to take a tougher stand.
The man is clearly a sociopath.
He has the ambition to restore, you know, the glory of the Russian empire.
Now keeping in mind that Russia and America are the world's two biggest nuclear superpowers, together owning more than 90, nine-zero, percent of all nuclear warheads, the stakes in this game of brinksmanship are insanely high.
So we wanted to get answers from the leader with perhaps the greatest power on earth to influence the situation, the President of the United States of America.
Don't you see it as dangerous where you have anti-American Cold War rhetoric, and you have state-run media, so you have the rise of not just Cold War rhetoric-- war rhetoric.
And then here we have the rise of war rhetoric too.
We have some politicians, but a lot of media, saying, "Well, let's go in there and let's do this.
" And I worry that at a certain point, you can't walk that horse back into the barn.
What Putin's doing with state-run media and the suppression of civil society and the suppression of the Internet and the suppression of dissenting voices is obviously entirely different from what's happening here.
I mean, we've got a First Amendment and there is a multiplicity of voices.
Part of what happens when you have state-run media-- the Russian economy is taking a hammer blow because of their incursions into Ukraine.
It's terrible for the future of Russia, but because ordinary Russians aren't getting good information, there is no check on what Putin may do.
We're raising the costs of what he is doing in Ukraine to incredibly high levels where, rationally, they would do something different, but he is not necessarily operating based on those cost-benefit analyses because right now he's still popular.
Obviously if there was state-run media in the United States, whoever the president was would have the ability to make whatever screwy policies they had look good as well.
Now as it turns out, Russia has a media outlet here in the United States that is actually bankrolled by the Kremlin.
The news channel RT, founded as Russia Today, broadcasts in more than 100 countries, including the US, where it markets itself as an alternative voice to mainstream media for American audiences.
And we met with RT's editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan to discuss the role of media in this current crisis.
Isn't it a risky game for media to stoke the fires even more and more? Because then the public Of course it is yeah.
gets more and more frenzied.
And then if something were to happen, politically, it's harder to rein back in.
Look at the plane.
The MH17.
Smith: Now the plane she's referring to here is Malaysia Airlines flight 17, which crashed in Eastern Ukraine in July of 2014, killing all aboard.
Now much of the world immediately concluded that the plane had been shot down by Russian-made weapons.
However Kremlin loyalists have denied this from day one.
Margarita Simonyan: I assume that in the States, more or less everyone thinks that it's all Russia's fault.
Why do they think so? Because this is what media have been telling them.
MH17 was blown out of the sky by pro-Russian separatists.
Of course Vladimir Putin is supplying these heavy weapons to the terrorists, so he is directly responsible.
It's very clear that there are Russian fingerprints all over this weaponry.
Simonyan: Although no investigation has been held yet, the media posted pictures of Putin with taglines "Putin's Bomb" or whatever.
Vladimir Putin is literally getting away with murder.
If in a month or two, for some reason, Obama wants to stop it and lift the sanctions and become friends with Putin again, he already can't do it.
In the news, you see a lot of stuff that is pretty much, like, Cold War.
It wasn't always like that.
Mm-hmm.
- In the '90s, it was completely different.
- Sure.
I mean, we were in love with the United States in the '90s, all of us.
We all wanted to go to the States, to study in the States, to stay in the States.
So what happened? You bombed Belgrade.
- Right.
- That was the end of it.
- That was it.
- Absolutely.
Bingo.
Just one month.
Completely.
The whole nation, I mean Russians, turned away from the US and it has been like that ever since.
Smith: For Russians, NATO's bombing of Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, became a powerful symbol of Western aggression.
In 1999, in the name of stopping mass killings in Kosovo, the US and our NATO allies acted without the authorization of the UN Security Council for the first time in history, knowing that Russia would have vetoed the resolution.
Now the NATO campaign succeeded in ending the war, but it also showed Moscow that NATO could pose a very real threat in Russia's own backyard.
Vladimir Putin took office just a few months later, promising to restore Russia's military strength.
And the escalation that he began 15 years ago has been building to a confrontation with NATO ever since.
Last year on VICE, we saw firsthand the firepower that NATO has built up along its Arctic border with Russia.
Colonel Tormod Heier, a Norwegian military commander, explained to us how NATO troops are preparing for a potential Russian incursion.
Smith: Now what this means is that a blowup on this remote frontier would actually have serious global consequences.
Because Article 5 requires NATO to respond collectively to an attack on any member.
And ever since Russia's annexation of Crimea, the countries on NATO's eastern flank are building up their forces as a deterrent.
NATO air defenses in the Baltic states have had their hands full.
These fighter pilots in Lithuania are flying nearly constant intercept missions to counter the massive increase in Russian violations of Baltic airspace over the past year.
And they have reason to be anxious because just like the Ukraine, these Baltic countries are former Soviet republics with large Russian-speaking populations.
And as Moscow orders military drills and over flights next to their borders, many in the Baltics worry that they could be Putin's next target.
(engine revving) Ostrovsky: These Lithuanian Special Forces, they're part of NATO's new Rapid Reaction Force.
NATO's going to bring from across the alliance to the eastern countries on Russia's frontier in order to counter what they say is a newly aggressive Russia.
These are Lithuania's elite of the elite.
This is going to be a raid scenario.
The players are three by tactical land rovers, a sniper team, and also we'll have a heavy weapons support by ATVs using the 60mm mortars.
Are they blanks or are they firing live rounds? Negative.
They're firing live rounds.
(guns firing) Smith: Now these drills reflect NATO's deepening concern about the potential for wider conflict in Eastern Europe.
The biggest point here is that we have to identify threats already existing, and also keep in mind that the new threats might come.
Is there anybody you're thinking of exactly? Well, we have our neighbors inciting hot spots right now in Ukraine.
I believe we're talking more or less about the same-- same folk.
So you want to make sure that the Russians know that you're ready if they decide to fight.
I think they know we have a very strong will to fight.
We will do everything we can to avoid World War III, because that's basically-- I believe it's going to be the end of what we know as mankind.
Smith: But these aren't just the words of a soldier preparing for war.
The president of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, echoed this exact sentiment to us.
Do you seriously believe that Russia could attack a NATO country, even though that could potentially trigger World War III? Smith: In September of 2014, President Obama went to Estonia to reassure the Baltic states that they wouldn't be fighting alone.
We will be here for Estonia, we will be here for Latvia, we will be here for Lithuania.
You lost your independence once before.
With NATO, you will never lose it again.
Smith: And President Obama is now backing up that promise.
There are American soldiers on the ground in the Baltic states right now.
All right, roll up.
(speaking) NATO's current troop deployment in Europe is at its biggest force level since the Cold War.
Okay, 2-2, you can stop right here.
That includes the expansion of its tactical Response Force from 13,000 to over 30,000 troops.
And much like the Russian fighters who wouldn't admit that they were actually sent by the Kremlin, the US troops we met there wouldn't commit to an objective either.
Ostrovsky: When you're training these men here in Lithuania, so close to Russia, what do you think you're actually training them for? I'm training my soldiers to learn how to fight as a platoon and a company, sir.
We're partnered with the Lithuanians so that we can build those relationships and work on that NATO alliance.
Smith: Now while the deployment of these troops might seem trivial in the grand scheme of things, or just part of a small regional strategy, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland explained to us that they're actually a critical part of a larger geopolitical chess game.
The decisions that NATO took to deploy on land and sea and air in the Baltic States were a direct response to the little green men that we saw very quickly in Crimea and in Eastern Ukraine, and were designed to say to Russia, "This is NATO territory.
This is Article 5 territory.
"We will defend every inch.
Don't mess with it.
" What we're trying to do is advance the same policy that we've had for 25 years, which is it's in our interest, it's in the rest of Europe's interest to have a Europe that's increasingly whole, free, and at peace, and these moves made by the Kremlin undercut and threaten this compact that we've had for all of these years.
Smith: However, in Russia, NATO's presence in Eastern Europe is seen as highly provocative.
Now to better understand Russia's point of view towards NATO, we spoke to their former NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin, who is now the Deputy Prime Minister and whose duties include overseeing the military.
Rogozin has won huge popularity in Russia for his massive overhaul of the Russian military and his aggressive behavior.
And, true to form, Deputy Prime Minister Rogozin turned our interview into a miniature show of force at a shooting range near the Kremlin.
(speaking Russian) All right.
(men clapping) Bravo.
(speaking Russian) You used to be, before being vice-premier, the ambassador to NATO.
What's the thinking in Russia towards NATO? (speaking Russian) Smith: Rogozin is currently overseeing a military whose budget has nearly doubled in the past decade alone.
And today, the Kremlin is spending hundreds of billions of dollars on modernizing both its conventional and nuclear weapons.
So you believe that NATO is moving aggressively towards Russia, and then Russia then has to defend itself? (speaking Russian) Now Russia's biggest grievance with NATO is the planned deployment of missile defense systems into Eastern Europe, which they see as their equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, just in reverse.
The Cuban Missile Crisis was the most terrifying moment of the Cold War.
In 1962, Soviet Leader Nikita Khrushchev deployed nuclear-tipped missiles 90 miles from the US mainland.
And only after a 13-day standoff, the weapons were removed.
But we came frighteningly close to all out nuclear war.
For Alexei Pushkov, Head of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Russian Duma, the parallel is quite clear.
- Everybody in America was aware - Mm-hmm.
- that Soviet missiles appeared on Cuba.
- Yeah.
- But, uh, since that time, it never happened.
- Right.
On the other hand, the United States are enlarging NATO up to our borders.
And so, Russians feel this threat.
(speaking Russian) It is not Russia that tries to place its anti-ballistic missile systems that will be used at neutralizing the American nuclear potentials somewhere in Central America.
We are not doing this.
But we know that the United States have quite large plans to have this system placed in Turkey and Romania.
Poland is discussed.
So these weapons are being moved closer to Russian borders to neutralize Russian nuclear potential and to make it vulnerable to political and military pressures.
Smith: Now because of the perceived threat from these NATO installations, Russia is strengthening its own system and making a display of its capabilities all along its borders.
Just this March, Russia staged a huge new military exercise with 76,000 troops, 65 naval ships, 15 submarines and over 200 aircraft.
And you don't have to be a statesman or a general to understand the message that all of this military hardware is supposed to convey.
(speaking Russian) Now we've seen this season on VICE that there's no shortage of serious issues that demand our attention.
We've covered Ebola, climate change, terrorism, and our wars in the Middle East.
But the reason why we made this special tonight is that it's one of the most complex and urgent issues facing humanity today.
In March, the Kremlin deployed short-range missiles to Kaliningrad on Lithuania's border.
In April, the first US troops hit the ground in Ukraine to advise their military on the conflict, putting US troops only a few hundred miles from pro-Russian forces.
Meanwhile, Russia has increased its forces on the Ukrainian border to their highest levels of the year.
And as we filmed this today, a new round of heavy fighting has broken out around Donetsk, shattering the ceasefire.
Obama: As we've seen again in recent days, Russian forces continue to operate in Eastern Ukraine violating Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
All of these signs point to a complete collapse in our relationship with Russia and a return to the terrifying Cold War logic that says the only way to keep your country safe is to have more weapons, and be more aggressive than your enemy.
Doesn't it feel in a way that we're going backwards? I think that's one of the reasons why we're here, is we're very concerned.
Because I grew up at the end of the Cold War and I have no desire to go back.
How do we stop that from happening? We have to be wise enough in order to sit together and in order to reestablish the system of coexistence.
Otherwise-- otherwise we have this wild, wild West.
Smith: But we have to remember that we've figured out how to solve this problem before.
In the late 1980s, leaders on both sides realized that the only sane option was to work together and step back from the brink.
Hopefully today's leaders will learn from our past and back away from this trajectory towards overt confrontation.
You know, there's a constant wrestling match between fear and hope.
And, you know, I think that because of what's happening in Ukraine and the way it's all in your living room in a way that used to be very distant, that it is easier to tap into people's fears and to potentially get into bad decisions around the use of military force and the rhetoric of war.
Now it's imperative that the rhetoric of war does not triumph, that sanity prevails, and that we soon begin the de-escalation process that we know is our only solution.
Now we understand that it may be hard and politically costly for leaders to salvage this broken relationship.
But we also know the cost if they fail to act.
(clock ticks)