Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (2014) s12e08 Episode Script
Trump & Tariffs
Welcome to "Last Week Tonight"!
I'm John Oliver, thank you so much
for joining us. It has been a busy week,
in which some incredibly stupid
things happened,
from Boris Johnson having
a run-in with a feisty ostrich,
to education secretary Linda McMahon
attempting to discuss AI in schools
and saying this instead.
There is a school system that's
going to start making sure
that first-graders or even pre-Ks
have A-1 teaching, you know,
every year starting, you know,
that far down in the grades.
Wasn't all that long ago that it's,
"We're going to have internet
in our schools, whoop!"
Now, okay, let's see A-1,
and how can that be helpful?
Yeah, it's the question on everyone's
mind: how's A-1 going to affect us?
And while a lot of people
made fun of that mistake,
I think the best response
came from A-1 sauce itself,
which posted,
"Agree, best to start them early."
And it is a perfect distillation
of our current times
that a steak sauce can dunk on
the U.S. secretary of education
and my honest reaction is,
I am team steak sauce.
But we're going to dive straight
in with our main story this week,
which concerns the ongoing
chaos of Trump's tariffs.
It's been an emotional rollercoaster
since Trump rolled them out last week
with the help of the single
dumbest chart in human history.
That prompted the Dow to drop by
nearly 4,000 points in two days,
so by Monday, everyone was
understandably freaking out,
only for Trump to dismiss anyone
concerned as "Panicans",
which he said was a, quote,
"new party based
on weak and stupid people."
Though I'd argue the weak and
stupid demo is, if anything,
way overrepresented
in government right now.
Then on Tuesday, Trump gave
a speech to Republican donors
where he floated major
new tariffs on pharmaceuticals,
told the audience,
"I know what the hell I'm doing"
and claimed this.
I'm telling you, these countries are
calling us up, kissing my ass.
They are dying to make a deal.
"Please, sir, make a deal.
I'll do anything."
Yeah, I'm sure some have been
pretty nice to him,
the same way that you'd try to be
nice if you suddenly found yourself
in the same room
as a monkey with a gun.
"Hi, monkey! Good monkey.
Strong monkey."
"Please, I'll do anything!"
By Wednesday morning, though,
Trump's reassurances were getting
more desperate,
as he at one point posted,
"Be cool! Everything
is going to work out well",
a sentence that's never
been true in human history.
That is the phrase you hear before
someone skateboards off a roof,
shows you their homemade
waterslide, or asks you
to hold the camera while they
climb into the alligator exhibit
to "do something hilarious".
Just a few hours later,
Trump announced a 90-day pause
on most of his biggest tariffs,
and he did it so abruptly,
it caught some key members of his
own administration by surprise.
The sudden change in policy
came as Democrats grilled
his top trade representative
on Capitol Hill.
It looks like your boss just
pulled the rug out from under you
and paused the tariffs,
the taxes on the American people.
There's no strategy.
You just found out three seconds
ago, sitting here. We saw you.
That's true. That congressman
later tweeted out this photo,
showing what it looked like
to watch that guy get the news.
And how do you think he
found out? A push notification?
A work email? Or 32 concurrent
messages on the office group text
where one guy goes,
"Whatthefuck, whatthefuck"
and another goes,
"hoooolllyyy shit"
and another's like,
"Lol J fuckin K I guess,"
and the guy who always asks
dumb questions is like,
"Wait, what's happening?"
And then the first guy sends
the link to the Times article
and then the dumb one's like,
"Oh my god what the hell
did this just happen?"
And then everyone at the same
time texts, "Yes, Cody."
This week was total chaos.
At one point,
the daily trading range of the S&P 500
was more than 5% for six straight days.
The previous times that happened
were in March 2020 during Covid,
late 2008 during the housing
crisis, and October 1987,
which, if you are too young
to remember,
was a stock market crash so massive,
"Nightline" felt like it needed to do
this to explain it to people.
Here once again to help us,
my good friend Kermit.
Thank you, Ted.
Can you tell us,
what is a bear market?
Yes, Ted. Thank you,
well, being a bear myself,
that is one of the first things
we bears are taught in the caves.
If I recall, a bear market
is one where prices are going down
for a long period of time.
So one would wish,
I suppose, for a bull market
to drive the bears out.
No, we don't want that!
We never want that!
Yeah. They explained a complicated
financial crash with Muppets,
a sentence so "this show"-coded,
I'm genuinely surprised
that we didn't think of it.
Honestly, if Ted Koppel
had a British accent, glasses,
way less gravitas,
and occasionally referred to Kermit
as "a bona fide swamp snack",
I couldn't tell the difference there.
And the thing is,
the turmoil isn't over.
Because what Trump's left in place,
including a baseline
10% tariff on all imports,
and a 145% tariff on China,
is still a monumental shift
in U.S. trade policy.
And despite what some
in the White House claim,
that the 90-day pause was
part of the strategy all along,
Trump himself seemed to
admit that he did it
in reaction
to the markets panicking.
I thought that people were jumping
a little bit out of line.
They were getting yippy,
you know,
they were getting a little bit
yippy, a little bit afraid.
Hold on, "a little bit afraid"
is a massive understatement.
People were freaking out
about their 401(k)s.
There were grandmas looking
at their retirement plan
and getting ready to open an OnlyFans
to get through the next five years.
And it wasn't
just ordinary investors.
One financial analyst wrote,
after talking to fund managers,
"A few have quietly wondered if
the president might be insane."
Which is fair, everyone knows
the right time to ask
if someone might be insane is five
months after you elect them president.
Look, this week
was incredibly stupid.
But it's important to understand
exactly how stupid it was,
because we're not
out of the woods yet.
And the damage the president's
already done
to confidence in our economic system
could have lasting repercussions.
So, tonight, let's talk
about Trump and his tariffs.
And let's start with the fact that none
of this should've been a surprise.
Not only did Trump bring up
the idea of 10% universal tariffs
repeatedly on the campaign trail,
he's been obsessed with the idea
of punishing other countries
with tariffs for years now.
In fact, when he touched off a trade
war with China in his first term,
we spent 21 minutes
unpacking it,
and the arguments hold up pretty
well, although I clearly do not,
as evidenced by a YouTube comment
from this week which said,
"I thought this was a new episode
until I noticed John's hair was darker"
"and face looked younger."
Which is both hurtful and fair.
But that piece featured
this clip of Trump back in 2011,
laying out his whole fantasy
of how tariffs could work.
Somebody said, "What would
you do, what can you do?"
So easy!
I drop a 25% tax on China,
and, you know, I said to somebody
that it's really the messenger,
the messenger is important.
I could have one man say,
"We're gonna tax you 25%,"
and I could say another,
"Listen, you motherfuckers,
we're gonna tax you 25%."
Putting aside how striking it is to hear
the word "motherfucker" on CSPAN,
I kind of wish he'd just
kept doing the voices there.
You could have one guy say,
"Listen motherfuckers,
we're gonna tax you 25%,"
and you could have
an Australian guy say,
"Oy, ya bloody dingo,
we're gonna tax you 25%, mate!"
or you could have Bjork say,
"I will tax you 25 butterfly rainbow
sneezes in happiness soup!"
There's all sorts of ways
that you can do it,
but the tariff is the important part.
The point is, Trump has long believed
that tariffs can fix our trade problems.
And that's coupled with his
insistence that trade is zero-sum,
that if we buy more from another
country than we are selling to them,
we're somehow getting ripped off.
But that is
just not how it works.
Because we are getting
things in return.
As one Nobel-winning economist
jokingly said,
"I run a chronic trade
deficit with my barber,"
"he never buys a damn thing
from me."
Which is just
a classic economist zinger.
Nevertheless, Trump applied
both those beliefs
to his initial tariff plan, imposing
massive penalties on countries,
indexed to the size
of our trade imbalance,
which led to some of the incredibly
stupid calculations on Trump's chart,
perhaps the dumbest of which
was actually explained
pretty well by Jim Cramer.
Let's go to the southern African
nation of Lesotho,
which had the misfortune of being
one of the two most highly tariffed
nations on Trump's list.
They're being hit with a 50% duty
on their exports to America.
That happened because Lesotho
only imported
2.8 million dollars worth
of U.S. goods last year,
whereas we imported roughly
240 million worth of stuff from them.
Now, the thing is,
Lesotho's a really tiny country.
Virtually everything we buy from them
is either apparel or diamonds.
But because it's a very poor country,
they can't afford to buy much from us.
So, what happens now?
To start, we're gonna have to pay
a lot more for any apparel
or diamonds from Lesotho.
Maybe we can replace
the apparel, but diamonds?
I mean, that's a lot harder.
And the only way for Lesotho
to get out of this jam is by importing
more stuff from America,
which it can't do, because
it doesn't have any money.
The president has likely just made
things more expensive for Americans
and not really changed
the behavior of our trading partners.
He's right.
Shit!
Jim Cramer was right.
I think I'm going insane.
And quick side note there,
if you are thinking,
"Hold on, did he say Lesotho's sitting
on top of a load of diamonds,"
"but they still
don't have any money?"
I know, but we don't have time,
that's a different story
that I'm sure we'll do one day,
I put a Post-It on my computer.
While Trump's temporarily paused
huge tariffs on Lesotho and others,
it is worth asking: what
exactly is his endgame here?
And it depends on who you ask.
When the tariffs first came down,
some in the White House insisted
they'd be permanent trade barriers,
intended to raise revenue,
and bring jobs back home,
while others claimed
they were a scare tactic,
designed to help us negotiate
more favorable deals.
But those
are two very different goals,
with different consequences
for businesses and workers,
who badly need to know
which to plan for.
So, let's take each scenario in turn.
And let's start with the idea
that these tariffs are designed
to shut out foreign competition
and ensure stuff
gets made here.
There are a few issues with that,
starting with the fact
that lots of things
aren't produced in the U.S.,
sometimes because they simply can't
be, at any kind of commercial scale.
Even Trump's secretary of commerce,
Howard Lutnick,
pictured here
rocking a cunty little bob,
seemed to understand that last
month, when he said this.
on a mango, right?
We can't grow mangoes in America.
We just can't grow a mango.
If you put a tariff on a mango,
the mango would be more expensive.
So then, that's just like
another version of income tax.
Okay, so the idea is to not do that.
Right. The problem is,
when the tariffs were announced,
mangoes weren't exempted,
so we did do that.
And sometimes it feels like the best
way to ensure Trump does something
is to tell him not to do it.
He's like a toddler, both because
his brain is unable to grasp negations,
but also because he has a short
torso, huge head, always looks
like he's about to fall over,
and won't let anyone brush his hair.
That same logic applies to other
crops, like coffee and bananas,
but that is not all. Because it's also
not easy to make electronics here.
Take the Nintendo Switch 2.
The company paused preorders
for it this week,
because they didn't know how it'd be
affected, as this analyst explained.
They gotta figure out
what they're gonna get charged.
Do they charge 50% more?
Do they charge double?
Do they even ship 'em?
How much of this is made
in the U.S.?
- None of it?
- None of it.
That is a good point,
but an even better delivery of it.
I want that guy on hand
to respond to all other situations.
"How much birthday cake is left
in the break room?" "None of it."
"How much of the Severance
goat plot did you actually understand?"
"None of it."
"How much of Trump's trade
briefing did he genuinely read?"
"None of it."
And if you're thinking,
"Well, hold on, why don't we
just build a Switch factory here?",
well, when it comes
to high-tech goods,
key components have to be sourced
from complex global supply chains.
It's not a matter of simply building
a factory. There is a lot more to it.
How much would it cost them to start
manufacturing Switches here in the US?
- Tens of billions of dollars.
- Billions?
That's because of a supply chain
that's been built over decades.
It would take four to five years
to even build and get done
a factory here in the U.S.
And the reality is, the assembly,
the supply chain is in Asia.
If you just built a factory here
in the U.S.,
where are you getting all the parts
from? Still in Asia.
Exactly.
And some of those components
are presumably about
to be subjected to heavy tariffs.
And quick side note:
among the many things
that I'm mad about right now
is the fact I have to spend time
talking about how tariffs
will impact the Switch,
instead of what I really
want to talk about,
which is that I only just learned
the president of Nintendo in America
is named Bowser.
That man, I don't shit you even
a tiny bit, is called Doug Bowser.
Now, if you don't know,
Bowser is, quite famously,
the primary antagonist of Mario,
the face of Nintendo.
Now, in the comedy world,
the president of Nintendo
being named "Doug Bowser"
is like someone gently setting
a ball on a tee, handing you a bat
and saying, "Please, have fun
and swing away."
But unfortunately, because this guy
doesn't understand economics,
I have to look at real
Nintendo President Doug Bowser,
and say, "Sorry, everyone, no time
for that, we've got math to do."
It's a truly sad state of affairs
or, to put it another way.
- Oh, no.
- Exactly.
The point is, if these tariffs stand,
they could have the opposite
of the intended purpose,
as some business owners
might realize it's now cheaper
to have a factory outside the U.S.
and not have to deal with tariffs.
But let's say that despite all that,
we still want all those manufacturing
jobs we lost to come back home.
First, as we've discussed before,
a lot of them don't exist anymore,
because they've been automated.
And second, even if we wanted
to build brand-new factories,
it's worth knowing,
these "new tariffs mean"
"higher material and equipment costs
for manufacturers" wanting to do that.
And in fact, "tariff-swollen building
costs have already helped to kill
"a 300 million plastics recycling
plant in Erie, Pennsylvania."
Which is a real shame for
multiple reasons, including that
it would've helped make Erie,
Pennsylvania known for something
other than the town that boiled
a Revolutionary War general's corpse
in order to separate
his flesh from his bones
so they could ship him back
to his hometown.
The idea there being,
they'd "reassemble the skeleton"
once he was in his
final grave site, but, you guessed it,
some bones wound up falling out
of the wagon on the trek,
as bones are wont to do.
It's an incredible story, and thanks
to the foiled recycling plant,
remains the only thing I will ever
know about Erie, Pennsylvania.
And even if we do end up bringing
some manufacturing jobs home,
you also have to factor in
that other countries will put
tariffs on our goods in return,
which will hurt other industries.
The current massive tariffs
on China are incredibly worrisome
for people like this
soybean farmer in Tennessee.
That trade relationship with China
was built over decades and decades.
Will Hutchinson,
a fourth-generation Tennessee farmer,
says he is very concerned.
This is gonna have an immediate
and drastic impact to our ability
to compete on the global marketplace
for our goods that we produce here.
Yeah, that literal soy boy is right.
This is pointless.
If I wanted to watch longstanding
relationships destroyed in an instant,
I'd just go to a basketball game to
see which couples act weird
when they end up on the jumbotron.
You can enjoy
relationships falling apart
without jeopardizing
the global economy!
And at this point, I'm sure some
Trump supporters are saying,
"Well, these were never
intended to be permanent."
"It's that second possibility
that you mentioned earlier,"
"that the tariffs were always
just a way to give Trump leverage"
"to renegotiate bad trade deals."
And after he announced
that 90-day pause,
that was definitely
the message getting sold.
This is the art of the deal. This shows
how strong our president is.
A huge win for the president,
a huge win for the country.
His biggest accomplishment
of the second term.
Trump won. He's doing exactly
what he said he would do.
He's a genius in negotiating,
he is very calculating
in how he negotiates,
he understands the art
of the deal better than anyone,
and he's gotten results
in a very short period of time.
I don't know
what's more desperate there,
the shameless sucking up,
or the need to put the words
"We Told You Not to Freak"
at the bottom of the screen.
Which is funny coming
from Fox News of all places,
considering most of their broadcasts
feature messages like:
"Why You Should Absolutely
Freak About the Green M&M!"
But let's at least consider
the possibility this was all about
gaining leverage
for negotiating new deals.
That was definitely
the White House's spin
after the pause was announced,
with Trump's Treasury secretary claiming
it'd happened because
the tariffs "brought more than 75
countries forward to negotiate."
But a couple things about that.
First, the White House said
it "will not be releasing a list"
"of the countries"
that had allegedly done that.
So, you know.
Remember, Trump's openly admitted
the key reason for his climbdown
was "people got the yippies."
And remember,
even with the pause,
we still have 10% tariffs
on nearly every country in the world,
which is still massively disruptive,
both to them and to us.
And that includes
countries like Singapore,
where we're going to
struggle to get a much better deal,
given that we face no tariffs there
and actually have a trade surplus.
I am not saying there aren't countries
where we have trade disputes.
Because there are.
Most notably, China,
where there are major issues,
from their heavy subsidies
for homegrown industries,
to their theft of U.S. companies'
intellectual property.
Resolving those issues is difficult.
It requires diplomacy,
and a coordinated strategy
with our allies.
But instead,
we've alienated those allies
and are going
into any future negotiation
having provoked China into putting
massive tariffs on our goods, too.
But don't worry, because Trump's
charismatic Treasury secretary
doesn't seem to think they're going
to be able to hurt us at all.
It was a big mistake,
this Chinese escalation,
because, you know, they're
playing with a pair of twos.
We are the deficit country,
so what do we lose by
the Chinese raising tariffs on us?
We export one-fifth to them
of what they export to us.
So, that is a losing hand for them.
Okay, setting aside that
"playing with a pair of twos"
sounds like how you'd describe
a threesome with Don Jr. and Eric,
that is incredibly simplistic.
Because it ignores
that China's leverage in a negotiation
isn't confined to just tariffs.
It can hurt us in other ways too.
Including by cutting off access to rare
earth elements we may badly need.
And before you think "rare earth
elements" are just some fancy powder
Gwyneth Paltrow adds to her morning
smoothie to enhance vaginal wellness,
you should know, they're
actually essential for everything
from wind turbines to computer
chips to F-35 stealth fighter jets.
And incredibly,
that Whoville tax accountant
wasn't even the most
reckless player
in the Trump administration's
messaging to China this week.
Because JD Vance, true to form,
was even more of a dick.
What has globalist economy gotten
the United States of America?
And the answer is, fundamentally,
it's based on two principles,
incurring a huge amount of debt to buy
things other countries make for us.
And to make it
a little more crystal clear:
we borrow money from Chinese
peasants
to buy the things those
Chinese peasants manufacture.
I know it is hard to take from
someone with this accent,
but you are really not supposed
to use the word "peasants" anymore.
That is incredibly insulting,
especially coming from the man who,
remember,
is next in line to run the country,
if anything were to happen
to Elon Musk,
so it is no wonder those comments
went down pretty badly in China.
The government's response?
Swift and scathing.
It's both astonishing and lamentable
to hear this vice president
make such ignorant
and disrespectful remarks.
On China's tightly
controlled internet,
government censors are allowing
Vance's interview to go viral,
amplifying the outrage,
igniting anger and sarcasm.
"Have you said 'thank you'
for the money we lent you?"
A reference to China being
the second-largest foreign
holder of U.S. government debt,
and that infamous Oval Office
exchange with Ukraine's president.
Yeah, that's a pretty solid burn.
And I guess, in a way,
it's reassuring to know that,
despite our differences,
the American and Chinese people
can come together to agree
that it is fun to dunk on this cursed
Cabbage Patch bitch.
And look, you can say,
"Well, that's all well and good, but
I still trust Trump to make a deal."
But here's the thing,
we actually know what happens
when he starts a trade war,
because remember, he did
a version of this in his first term,
and it didn't go great.
If you look back
at his tariffs back then
protecting products and industries,
like washing machines and steel,
they might have worked in a narrow
sense by creating modest job gains.
They're credited with creating
or saving
"several thousand jobs
in the steel industry"
and creating around 1,800 jobs
manufacturing washing machines.
But in the broader sense,
those jobs cost us a lot.
Trump's tariffs wound up
raising prices,
to the point where it's estimated
American consumers and businesses
had to pay more than 900,000 dollars
a year for every steel job created,
and over 800,000 a year for each
job making washing machines,
putting the total cost of those
jobs in the billions of dollars.
And that's before you get to the fact
that because his tariffs on metals
drove up costs for other industries,
one study estimated they resulted in
as many as 75,000 fewer
manufacturing jobs.
And when it comes
to China in particular,
his first-term tariffs
did bring in billions,
by raising
the costs of their goods here.
But the broader damage to American
farmers after China retaliated
was so severe that 92%
of what we collected
went right back out the door
in the form of bailouts to them.
And the kicker is, we didn't get
much out of all of that.
Because after a trade agreement
was reached,
Trump excitedly bragged he'd got
China to commit to purchase
an additional 200 billion
in U.S. products,
but later analysis showed it
effectively bought none of those goods.
None of them.
But please, don't worry,
I'm sure Trump definitely
learned his lesson, and this time,
he's gonna get an empty promise
for 500 billion.
Fool him once, shame on him.
Fool him twice,
that's basically what everyone does.
And remember, Trump's first-term
tariffs are absolutely dwarfed
by what he's done
over the last two weeks.
It's not like he's negotiating
from a strong position right now,
because everyone knows
he just blinked.
The bond markets got
the yippies, and he blinked.
And again, it's good that that
happened. I'm glad he blinked.
But it's weird to claim it's
a brilliant negotiating tactic
when you've already backed down
before a single deal is reached.
And the thing is, this could
all cost us an awful lot.
Because maybe the most striking
thing over the past two weeks
has been the degree to which
it's become clear
the world's trust in America
has been shattered.
This isn't just the ordinary
give-and-take of negotiations,
countries are openly saying
things are different now.
Canada's prime minister
actually summed it up pretty well
the day after Trump's initial round
of tariffs were announced.
The global economy is fundamentally
different today than it was yesterday.
The system of global trade
anchored on the United States
that Canada has relied on
since the end of the Second World War,
a system that,
while not perfect,
has helped to deliver prosperity for
our country for decades, is over.
While this is a tragedy,
it is also the new reality.
That is a bleak thing to hear.
"Tragedy is the new reality"
is a grim summation of
the state of world affairs,
but also, I'm just gonna say it,
kind of a fucking bar.
Honestly, you slap that title
on a new Fallout Boy album,
the girls are going feral.
And it's not just world leaders,
investors are making it clear
they no longer have the trust
they once did
in the stability
of the American economy.
Usually,
when the stock market drops,
the market for U.S. government
bonds improves,
because they're seen
as a safe investment.
This week, though,
they both went down,
which is a terrible sign.
As one economist put it,
"Investors and central banks"
"are selling Treasuries and dollars
due to a loss of confidence"
"and credibility in American assets.
Financial chaos has its cost."
That is bad.
And by the way, that is from Friday,
after the pause was announced.
And that is the thing,
while everyone may want to pretend
this crisis is past us, it's just not.
Even Chuck Schumer seemed to miss
that point, when he tweeted out,
"History will remember April 9th, 2025
as America's actual liberation day,"
"the day that President Trump backed
down from his ridiculous tariff fiasco."
But it's not over, Chuck!
We dodged a bullet,
but the monkey still has a gun!
And incidentally,
if anyone watching this is close
to Chuck Schumer right now,
please take his phone,
take it out of his hand,
and throw it into the fucking ocean!
So, what do we do? Well, ideally,
Congress would realize
just how close
we came to financial Armageddon,
and take away the president's
power to unilaterally impose tariffs.
There's actually a bill
in Congress right now,
cosponsored by Chuck Grassley,
that "would require the White House
to justify tariffs and give lawmakers"
"the opportunity to reject them
within 60 days of enactment",
which seems more than reasonable.
The problem is, you're gonna need
67 votes to beat a presidential veto
and Republicans
like Senator John Kennedy
are refusing to sign on,
using this logic.
I have not joined the Grassley bill.
Not likely to join the Grassley bill.
The Grassley bill will not pass.
And I just think it's a distraction.
The most immediate question for me
is, the president is a pit bull.
He's won. He's caught the car.
The question is, what's
he gonna do with the car?
Look, that is a shitty answer
in so many different ways,
but the main one is, the whole
idiom "the dog that caught the car"
is based on the fact dogs have no plan
for what to do after they catch it.
That is damning enough alone!
No one says,
"He's like the dog that caught the car,"
"as phase one of the dog's long-term
strategy to reshore manufacturing."
Also, you're a coequal branch
of government,
it is your job to stop that dog,
not stand back and say,
"I dunno, guys, let him cook."
"There's always the chance
of an 'Air Bud' situation here."
I don't know where things
are gonna go next.
We're taping this on Saturday.
Who knows what's happened
between now and
when you are seeing this?
Maybe Trump will have rolled
the tariffs back even further,
maybe he'll have put even
bigger new ones in on mangoes.
What is clear is that he's
destabilizing our economy
with no real plan of action,
and all I'll say is,
if our next episode opens up
with me sitting next to a chart
of the Nasdaq and Miss Piggy,
it means we are fucked.
And now, this.
And Now: People Just Want to Talk
About One Particular HBO Show.
Everyone's entitled to their opinion
on the season three ending
of "White Lotus".
- Finally.
- Can we clamp her in over there?
I feel like she's gonna fly out
of the chair here.
"The White Lotus" season three
came to an end last night.
- Did you watch?
- I sure did.
Me too, yeah. I'm doing Parker Posey's
character, Victoria.
I want my Lorazepam!
- You guys watching "White Lotus"?
- Yes!
Piper, no!
Piper, no!
Piper, no spoilers here.
- Piper, no! "White Lotus"?
- Yes. "White Lotus" is so good.
You guys are awesome.
- Do you know what it reminds me of?
- What?
- "White Lotus."
- Don't say a word.
- Did you watch it?
- Not yet.
Okay, good.
You know what I had for
the "White Lotus" finale? Singha.
It's a Thai beer.
Yeah, 'cause we had Thai food.
By the way, J-Mac had me watch
"White Lotus", so I went on vacation.
- I was forced to watch season three.
- Forced?
Time out. Who's your favorite character
on season three of "White Lotus"?
I hate all of them.
- Piper, no! Do it.
- Piper, no!
Moving on. Before we go,
I'd like to take a brief moment
to talk about fish.
They come in all shapes and sizes,
big, small, long, round, spiky,
and shoot it, please.
Spring is here, meaning it's time
for an exciting annual ritual,
which I'll let this pro wrestler
on TikTok explain.
All right, nobody freak out,
but I just want to let you guys know
that it's finally fish doorbell
season again,
which is the most wonderful
time of the year.
This website is called "Visdeurbel"
which is dutch for "fish doorbell"
and you might be thinking,
"What is a fish doorbell?"
"No way it's a doorbell for fish."
But it actually is a doorbell for fish.
Yeah, it is. I'm about
to spend the rest of this show
talking about a fish doorbell,
or as it's called in the Netherlands,
"Visdeurbel."
Which sounds like someone hit
with a tranquilizer dart
trying to say "Vin Diesel".
And I promise: I'll explain
what it is in a minute,
but before I do, I do need you
to know that that man's a WWE wrestler,
who goes by the ring name
"Shiloh Hill",
which, to be honest,
isn't a top-tier wrestling name.
It sounds more like the title
of an unwatchable indie film.
But it gets even more confusing
when you find out
that his real, legal name
is Thunder Justice Keck.
I am completely serious. Imagine
having the name "Thunder Justice"
and using something else
to wrestle under.
It'd be like finding out that my legal
name was "Zippy Bookworm".
Why change?
Anyway, the point is:
the Netherlands
has a doorbell for fish,
or to be more specific,
a doorbell for humans for fish.
I'll let this reporter explain.
Usually, when you get a fishy-looking
visitor at your door,
you may choose not to answer,
but these creatures,
stuck behind a manually operated
lock in the Netherlands,
require a helping hand.
For the past five years,
officials in the city of Utrecht
have been alerted about any buildup
of fish thanks to this live feed.
Millions have been watching it
around the world,
and if they spot a fish,
they can ring a doorbell
that sends a screenshot to organizers
who can open the gate.
It shows there's a huge willingness
and potential in people
just offering a little bit of help
to create a little bit
of a better environment.
It's true. There is a wholesome
livestream of Dutch fish
waiting at a gate, and you
could be watching it right now.
Did you just hear me?
You could be watching patient
Dutch fish. Why are you still here?
Although, honestly, that's a fair
question even without the fish.
It's Sunday at 11:00, could be watching
"Godzilla vs. King Kong" on TBS
or an episode of "Dyson Cleaning"
on QVC.
But given what I just told you,
you could be watching schools of fish
banging at the gates of a Dutch canal,
I repeat: why are you still here?
The fish doorbell concept
is very simple.
You don't want fish accumulating around
the locked gates for long,
because it's easier for predators
to attack them there.
So, anyone can watch the stream,
and if they see a fish,
and ring the doorbell for them,
the organizers get sent a screenshot.
And when enough people do that,
a lock keeper is asked
to manually open the gates.
And it is important
that that happens.
Because the fish need to get safely
through the canal as part
of their annual migration to search
for a place to spawn and reproduce.
Or, to put it more crudely,
Are they frisky fish?
Are they horny fish?
What kind of fish
are we talking here?
Yeah, I think you could describe
them as horny fish.
They've got
one thing on their minds.
Yeah, they do!
These fish want to fuck.
So, not only are you ringing
a fish doorbell for their freedom,
you're wingman-ing them
to completion.
Their pleasure
is literally in your hands.
The doorbell's livestream alone
is dangerously addictive,
but its co-creator also provides
a weekly report
on what's been happening,
and it is excellent.
I've also gotten messages
saying the fish doorbell
is being watched in all kinds
of places in all kinds of ways.
I was sent this amazing photo
of Kali the house chicken,
who also watches the fish doorbell
news. It's wonderful to see.
Yes. Yes, it is.
And it proves that as a host,
I have made all the wrong decisions.
This impossibly blonde Utrecht 10
does weekly news reports
featuring a chicken
watching horny fish
in what looks like an after-hours
West Elm, meanwhile,
I actively choose to give weekly
book reports on hospice fraud
in front of a skyline
made of credit card chips.
This man is everything
that I am not.
But wait, because he also gives updates
on the kinds of fish people have seen.
This catfish is certainly more
than a meter,
maybe even one and a half meters
long. Just in the Utrecht lock.
What an amazing thing to see!
All in all, a really cool week.
I love it so much. To be able to end
that by saying "a really cool week"
just fills me with envy.
That is something that no one in America
has been able to say for years.
To be Dutch!
You know what the prime minister
of the Netherlands said this week?
Of course you don't.
And I'll tell you why,
because he doesn't alter the course
of world history
with every fucking word he says!
And that must be so refreshing.
Do you even know their
prime minister's name?
No, you don't! But you should,
because it is,
and this is true, Dick Schoof.
Dick, and I really must repeat,
Schoof.
Which, not for nothing,
would be a pretty good name
for that fish fuck canal.
Every spring, these Dutch fish must
pass through the Dick Schoof.
We are actually entering prime fish
doorbell season right now.
It runs from early March
to late May,
and attracts
millions of viewers annually.
And I will admit, most of the time,
you're just watching murky water
in a Dutch canal.
But if you spot a fish
and you get to ring that doorbell,
it is incredibly exciting,
as Shiloh Hill can attest.
I know I'm pretty easily entertained,
but in my opinion,
this is like one of the best sites
on the internet.
The thrill you get letting a fish
through is unparalleled.
He's a monster. Let's go!
Be free, buddy!
Yes, be free! Go get yours, fish!
Swim like no one's watching, and
fuck like you've never been hurt!
You've made it through the gates,
and you're comfortably in your
"Sex and the City" Samantha era!
The point is, this is
the best site on the internet.
My only complaint is that,
in all the time that I've spent on it,
I've hardly seen any fish.
Which does make me wonder:
is it that the fish just
aren't horny enough?
Because they should be.
It is spawning season.
But if they're still not showing up,
it tells me that they lack
the proper motivation.
Which might be fair,
travel is exhausting.
We all need help setting
the mood from time to time,
whether that's candles,
or lingerie, or maybe some mood music
to get things going,
a sexy slow jam like
"Let's Get It On" by Marvin Gaye,
"Love in This Club" by Usher
or "Let Me Love You" by Mario.
And maybe these fish
are no different.
What I'm saying is,
Visdeurbel goes a long way
towards making fish sex safe,
welcoming, and convenient.
But it's hamstrung by needing
to be family friendly.
It's unable to set the mood
that these fish clearly need.
What they need is a sexy R&B song
tailored to their fish needs.
And that is where we can step in.
So, for any fish watching,
we've set up Show-Me-Your-
Netherlands-dot-com,
and if you go there, fish,
and push that doorbell,
you'll see a special performance
of a bona fide slam jam
specifically for Dutch fish,
by Mario.
And guess what? That performance
is about to happen right now.
Ladies and gentlemen,
please welcome Mario!
Yeah! Listen!
I know about fish things,
I know what spring brings.
Fish doorbell, don't leave me.
This time you'll believe me.
Got their fate in my hands.
Gonna do what I can.
Ring, ring, and they'll be free.
Ring, ring, fish sex spree.
You know I look deep in.
Girl, you know we locked in.
I release your stress 'cause
I know you feel that pressure.
Ring the bell
and make you go through, yeah.
I want to watch those Dutch
fish make love and screw, yeah.
Just keep on rubbing fins.
Girl, I don't wanna stop this.
Keep on swimming,
I can see those gills go.
I know you like
how I got that surprise.
'Cause now I got you spawning
Break through that lock, girl,
you're already wet.
And hit that doorbell
deep in Utrecht.
If loving fish is wrong,
then I don't wanna get it right.
Now, ladies, if you ever wanted
your man to be a fish
that would bust right through
the canal for you, it's me, baby.
Listen!
See, baby, I just don't get it,
maybe I'm asking too much.
Let me get that lock open,
and you can call it going Dutch.
You know it's spawning season,
and I'm not telling you lies.
The fish that you are, you stick
around and I just don't know why.
'Cause if I was a fish, baby,
you'd never worry 'bout what I do.
I'd be swimming home, back to you.
Every night, doing you right.
You're the type of fish
that deserves good things.
Fist full of fish food,
and other fish things.
Baby, you're a fish, and I just
want to show you, you are.
You should ring that doorbell,
swim up to my shore.
Hell, I don't need a seashell
to find them pearls.
I'm all about protection,
natural selection.
Show you all the way back
to the sea.
Baby, you should ring
that doorbell!
You should ring that doorbell, baby!
Ring that doorbell.
Mario, ladies and gentlemen!
Yes!
That is our show, thank you
so much for watching.
We're off next week,
back April 27th, good night!
Mario, give it to
them one more time!
Love you, let me be the one to
Give you everything
you want and need.
Baby, good love and protection.
I'm John Oliver, thank you so much
for joining us. It has been a busy week,
in which some incredibly stupid
things happened,
from Boris Johnson having
a run-in with a feisty ostrich,
to education secretary Linda McMahon
attempting to discuss AI in schools
and saying this instead.
There is a school system that's
going to start making sure
that first-graders or even pre-Ks
have A-1 teaching, you know,
every year starting, you know,
that far down in the grades.
Wasn't all that long ago that it's,
"We're going to have internet
in our schools, whoop!"
Now, okay, let's see A-1,
and how can that be helpful?
Yeah, it's the question on everyone's
mind: how's A-1 going to affect us?
And while a lot of people
made fun of that mistake,
I think the best response
came from A-1 sauce itself,
which posted,
"Agree, best to start them early."
And it is a perfect distillation
of our current times
that a steak sauce can dunk on
the U.S. secretary of education
and my honest reaction is,
I am team steak sauce.
But we're going to dive straight
in with our main story this week,
which concerns the ongoing
chaos of Trump's tariffs.
It's been an emotional rollercoaster
since Trump rolled them out last week
with the help of the single
dumbest chart in human history.
That prompted the Dow to drop by
nearly 4,000 points in two days,
so by Monday, everyone was
understandably freaking out,
only for Trump to dismiss anyone
concerned as "Panicans",
which he said was a, quote,
"new party based
on weak and stupid people."
Though I'd argue the weak and
stupid demo is, if anything,
way overrepresented
in government right now.
Then on Tuesday, Trump gave
a speech to Republican donors
where he floated major
new tariffs on pharmaceuticals,
told the audience,
"I know what the hell I'm doing"
and claimed this.
I'm telling you, these countries are
calling us up, kissing my ass.
They are dying to make a deal.
"Please, sir, make a deal.
I'll do anything."
Yeah, I'm sure some have been
pretty nice to him,
the same way that you'd try to be
nice if you suddenly found yourself
in the same room
as a monkey with a gun.
"Hi, monkey! Good monkey.
Strong monkey."
"Please, I'll do anything!"
By Wednesday morning, though,
Trump's reassurances were getting
more desperate,
as he at one point posted,
"Be cool! Everything
is going to work out well",
a sentence that's never
been true in human history.
That is the phrase you hear before
someone skateboards off a roof,
shows you their homemade
waterslide, or asks you
to hold the camera while they
climb into the alligator exhibit
to "do something hilarious".
Just a few hours later,
Trump announced a 90-day pause
on most of his biggest tariffs,
and he did it so abruptly,
it caught some key members of his
own administration by surprise.
The sudden change in policy
came as Democrats grilled
his top trade representative
on Capitol Hill.
It looks like your boss just
pulled the rug out from under you
and paused the tariffs,
the taxes on the American people.
There's no strategy.
You just found out three seconds
ago, sitting here. We saw you.
That's true. That congressman
later tweeted out this photo,
showing what it looked like
to watch that guy get the news.
And how do you think he
found out? A push notification?
A work email? Or 32 concurrent
messages on the office group text
where one guy goes,
"Whatthefuck, whatthefuck"
and another goes,
"hoooolllyyy shit"
and another's like,
"Lol J fuckin K I guess,"
and the guy who always asks
dumb questions is like,
"Wait, what's happening?"
And then the first guy sends
the link to the Times article
and then the dumb one's like,
"Oh my god what the hell
did this just happen?"
And then everyone at the same
time texts, "Yes, Cody."
This week was total chaos.
At one point,
the daily trading range of the S&P 500
was more than 5% for six straight days.
The previous times that happened
were in March 2020 during Covid,
late 2008 during the housing
crisis, and October 1987,
which, if you are too young
to remember,
was a stock market crash so massive,
"Nightline" felt like it needed to do
this to explain it to people.
Here once again to help us,
my good friend Kermit.
Thank you, Ted.
Can you tell us,
what is a bear market?
Yes, Ted. Thank you,
well, being a bear myself,
that is one of the first things
we bears are taught in the caves.
If I recall, a bear market
is one where prices are going down
for a long period of time.
So one would wish,
I suppose, for a bull market
to drive the bears out.
No, we don't want that!
We never want that!
Yeah. They explained a complicated
financial crash with Muppets,
a sentence so "this show"-coded,
I'm genuinely surprised
that we didn't think of it.
Honestly, if Ted Koppel
had a British accent, glasses,
way less gravitas,
and occasionally referred to Kermit
as "a bona fide swamp snack",
I couldn't tell the difference there.
And the thing is,
the turmoil isn't over.
Because what Trump's left in place,
including a baseline
10% tariff on all imports,
and a 145% tariff on China,
is still a monumental shift
in U.S. trade policy.
And despite what some
in the White House claim,
that the 90-day pause was
part of the strategy all along,
Trump himself seemed to
admit that he did it
in reaction
to the markets panicking.
I thought that people were jumping
a little bit out of line.
They were getting yippy,
you know,
they were getting a little bit
yippy, a little bit afraid.
Hold on, "a little bit afraid"
is a massive understatement.
People were freaking out
about their 401(k)s.
There were grandmas looking
at their retirement plan
and getting ready to open an OnlyFans
to get through the next five years.
And it wasn't
just ordinary investors.
One financial analyst wrote,
after talking to fund managers,
"A few have quietly wondered if
the president might be insane."
Which is fair, everyone knows
the right time to ask
if someone might be insane is five
months after you elect them president.
Look, this week
was incredibly stupid.
But it's important to understand
exactly how stupid it was,
because we're not
out of the woods yet.
And the damage the president's
already done
to confidence in our economic system
could have lasting repercussions.
So, tonight, let's talk
about Trump and his tariffs.
And let's start with the fact that none
of this should've been a surprise.
Not only did Trump bring up
the idea of 10% universal tariffs
repeatedly on the campaign trail,
he's been obsessed with the idea
of punishing other countries
with tariffs for years now.
In fact, when he touched off a trade
war with China in his first term,
we spent 21 minutes
unpacking it,
and the arguments hold up pretty
well, although I clearly do not,
as evidenced by a YouTube comment
from this week which said,
"I thought this was a new episode
until I noticed John's hair was darker"
"and face looked younger."
Which is both hurtful and fair.
But that piece featured
this clip of Trump back in 2011,
laying out his whole fantasy
of how tariffs could work.
Somebody said, "What would
you do, what can you do?"
So easy!
I drop a 25% tax on China,
and, you know, I said to somebody
that it's really the messenger,
the messenger is important.
I could have one man say,
"We're gonna tax you 25%,"
and I could say another,
"Listen, you motherfuckers,
we're gonna tax you 25%."
Putting aside how striking it is to hear
the word "motherfucker" on CSPAN,
I kind of wish he'd just
kept doing the voices there.
You could have one guy say,
"Listen motherfuckers,
we're gonna tax you 25%,"
and you could have
an Australian guy say,
"Oy, ya bloody dingo,
we're gonna tax you 25%, mate!"
or you could have Bjork say,
"I will tax you 25 butterfly rainbow
sneezes in happiness soup!"
There's all sorts of ways
that you can do it,
but the tariff is the important part.
The point is, Trump has long believed
that tariffs can fix our trade problems.
And that's coupled with his
insistence that trade is zero-sum,
that if we buy more from another
country than we are selling to them,
we're somehow getting ripped off.
But that is
just not how it works.
Because we are getting
things in return.
As one Nobel-winning economist
jokingly said,
"I run a chronic trade
deficit with my barber,"
"he never buys a damn thing
from me."
Which is just
a classic economist zinger.
Nevertheless, Trump applied
both those beliefs
to his initial tariff plan, imposing
massive penalties on countries,
indexed to the size
of our trade imbalance,
which led to some of the incredibly
stupid calculations on Trump's chart,
perhaps the dumbest of which
was actually explained
pretty well by Jim Cramer.
Let's go to the southern African
nation of Lesotho,
which had the misfortune of being
one of the two most highly tariffed
nations on Trump's list.
They're being hit with a 50% duty
on their exports to America.
That happened because Lesotho
only imported
2.8 million dollars worth
of U.S. goods last year,
whereas we imported roughly
240 million worth of stuff from them.
Now, the thing is,
Lesotho's a really tiny country.
Virtually everything we buy from them
is either apparel or diamonds.
But because it's a very poor country,
they can't afford to buy much from us.
So, what happens now?
To start, we're gonna have to pay
a lot more for any apparel
or diamonds from Lesotho.
Maybe we can replace
the apparel, but diamonds?
I mean, that's a lot harder.
And the only way for Lesotho
to get out of this jam is by importing
more stuff from America,
which it can't do, because
it doesn't have any money.
The president has likely just made
things more expensive for Americans
and not really changed
the behavior of our trading partners.
He's right.
Shit!
Jim Cramer was right.
I think I'm going insane.
And quick side note there,
if you are thinking,
"Hold on, did he say Lesotho's sitting
on top of a load of diamonds,"
"but they still
don't have any money?"
I know, but we don't have time,
that's a different story
that I'm sure we'll do one day,
I put a Post-It on my computer.
While Trump's temporarily paused
huge tariffs on Lesotho and others,
it is worth asking: what
exactly is his endgame here?
And it depends on who you ask.
When the tariffs first came down,
some in the White House insisted
they'd be permanent trade barriers,
intended to raise revenue,
and bring jobs back home,
while others claimed
they were a scare tactic,
designed to help us negotiate
more favorable deals.
But those
are two very different goals,
with different consequences
for businesses and workers,
who badly need to know
which to plan for.
So, let's take each scenario in turn.
And let's start with the idea
that these tariffs are designed
to shut out foreign competition
and ensure stuff
gets made here.
There are a few issues with that,
starting with the fact
that lots of things
aren't produced in the U.S.,
sometimes because they simply can't
be, at any kind of commercial scale.
Even Trump's secretary of commerce,
Howard Lutnick,
pictured here
rocking a cunty little bob,
seemed to understand that last
month, when he said this.
on a mango, right?
We can't grow mangoes in America.
We just can't grow a mango.
If you put a tariff on a mango,
the mango would be more expensive.
So then, that's just like
another version of income tax.
Okay, so the idea is to not do that.
Right. The problem is,
when the tariffs were announced,
mangoes weren't exempted,
so we did do that.
And sometimes it feels like the best
way to ensure Trump does something
is to tell him not to do it.
He's like a toddler, both because
his brain is unable to grasp negations,
but also because he has a short
torso, huge head, always looks
like he's about to fall over,
and won't let anyone brush his hair.
That same logic applies to other
crops, like coffee and bananas,
but that is not all. Because it's also
not easy to make electronics here.
Take the Nintendo Switch 2.
The company paused preorders
for it this week,
because they didn't know how it'd be
affected, as this analyst explained.
They gotta figure out
what they're gonna get charged.
Do they charge 50% more?
Do they charge double?
Do they even ship 'em?
How much of this is made
in the U.S.?
- None of it?
- None of it.
That is a good point,
but an even better delivery of it.
I want that guy on hand
to respond to all other situations.
"How much birthday cake is left
in the break room?" "None of it."
"How much of the Severance
goat plot did you actually understand?"
"None of it."
"How much of Trump's trade
briefing did he genuinely read?"
"None of it."
And if you're thinking,
"Well, hold on, why don't we
just build a Switch factory here?",
well, when it comes
to high-tech goods,
key components have to be sourced
from complex global supply chains.
It's not a matter of simply building
a factory. There is a lot more to it.
How much would it cost them to start
manufacturing Switches here in the US?
- Tens of billions of dollars.
- Billions?
That's because of a supply chain
that's been built over decades.
It would take four to five years
to even build and get done
a factory here in the U.S.
And the reality is, the assembly,
the supply chain is in Asia.
If you just built a factory here
in the U.S.,
where are you getting all the parts
from? Still in Asia.
Exactly.
And some of those components
are presumably about
to be subjected to heavy tariffs.
And quick side note:
among the many things
that I'm mad about right now
is the fact I have to spend time
talking about how tariffs
will impact the Switch,
instead of what I really
want to talk about,
which is that I only just learned
the president of Nintendo in America
is named Bowser.
That man, I don't shit you even
a tiny bit, is called Doug Bowser.
Now, if you don't know,
Bowser is, quite famously,
the primary antagonist of Mario,
the face of Nintendo.
Now, in the comedy world,
the president of Nintendo
being named "Doug Bowser"
is like someone gently setting
a ball on a tee, handing you a bat
and saying, "Please, have fun
and swing away."
But unfortunately, because this guy
doesn't understand economics,
I have to look at real
Nintendo President Doug Bowser,
and say, "Sorry, everyone, no time
for that, we've got math to do."
It's a truly sad state of affairs
or, to put it another way.
- Oh, no.
- Exactly.
The point is, if these tariffs stand,
they could have the opposite
of the intended purpose,
as some business owners
might realize it's now cheaper
to have a factory outside the U.S.
and not have to deal with tariffs.
But let's say that despite all that,
we still want all those manufacturing
jobs we lost to come back home.
First, as we've discussed before,
a lot of them don't exist anymore,
because they've been automated.
And second, even if we wanted
to build brand-new factories,
it's worth knowing,
these "new tariffs mean"
"higher material and equipment costs
for manufacturers" wanting to do that.
And in fact, "tariff-swollen building
costs have already helped to kill
"a 300 million plastics recycling
plant in Erie, Pennsylvania."
Which is a real shame for
multiple reasons, including that
it would've helped make Erie,
Pennsylvania known for something
other than the town that boiled
a Revolutionary War general's corpse
in order to separate
his flesh from his bones
so they could ship him back
to his hometown.
The idea there being,
they'd "reassemble the skeleton"
once he was in his
final grave site, but, you guessed it,
some bones wound up falling out
of the wagon on the trek,
as bones are wont to do.
It's an incredible story, and thanks
to the foiled recycling plant,
remains the only thing I will ever
know about Erie, Pennsylvania.
And even if we do end up bringing
some manufacturing jobs home,
you also have to factor in
that other countries will put
tariffs on our goods in return,
which will hurt other industries.
The current massive tariffs
on China are incredibly worrisome
for people like this
soybean farmer in Tennessee.
That trade relationship with China
was built over decades and decades.
Will Hutchinson,
a fourth-generation Tennessee farmer,
says he is very concerned.
This is gonna have an immediate
and drastic impact to our ability
to compete on the global marketplace
for our goods that we produce here.
Yeah, that literal soy boy is right.
This is pointless.
If I wanted to watch longstanding
relationships destroyed in an instant,
I'd just go to a basketball game to
see which couples act weird
when they end up on the jumbotron.
You can enjoy
relationships falling apart
without jeopardizing
the global economy!
And at this point, I'm sure some
Trump supporters are saying,
"Well, these were never
intended to be permanent."
"It's that second possibility
that you mentioned earlier,"
"that the tariffs were always
just a way to give Trump leverage"
"to renegotiate bad trade deals."
And after he announced
that 90-day pause,
that was definitely
the message getting sold.
This is the art of the deal. This shows
how strong our president is.
A huge win for the president,
a huge win for the country.
His biggest accomplishment
of the second term.
Trump won. He's doing exactly
what he said he would do.
He's a genius in negotiating,
he is very calculating
in how he negotiates,
he understands the art
of the deal better than anyone,
and he's gotten results
in a very short period of time.
I don't know
what's more desperate there,
the shameless sucking up,
or the need to put the words
"We Told You Not to Freak"
at the bottom of the screen.
Which is funny coming
from Fox News of all places,
considering most of their broadcasts
feature messages like:
"Why You Should Absolutely
Freak About the Green M&M!"
But let's at least consider
the possibility this was all about
gaining leverage
for negotiating new deals.
That was definitely
the White House's spin
after the pause was announced,
with Trump's Treasury secretary claiming
it'd happened because
the tariffs "brought more than 75
countries forward to negotiate."
But a couple things about that.
First, the White House said
it "will not be releasing a list"
"of the countries"
that had allegedly done that.
So, you know.
Remember, Trump's openly admitted
the key reason for his climbdown
was "people got the yippies."
And remember,
even with the pause,
we still have 10% tariffs
on nearly every country in the world,
which is still massively disruptive,
both to them and to us.
And that includes
countries like Singapore,
where we're going to
struggle to get a much better deal,
given that we face no tariffs there
and actually have a trade surplus.
I am not saying there aren't countries
where we have trade disputes.
Because there are.
Most notably, China,
where there are major issues,
from their heavy subsidies
for homegrown industries,
to their theft of U.S. companies'
intellectual property.
Resolving those issues is difficult.
It requires diplomacy,
and a coordinated strategy
with our allies.
But instead,
we've alienated those allies
and are going
into any future negotiation
having provoked China into putting
massive tariffs on our goods, too.
But don't worry, because Trump's
charismatic Treasury secretary
doesn't seem to think they're going
to be able to hurt us at all.
It was a big mistake,
this Chinese escalation,
because, you know, they're
playing with a pair of twos.
We are the deficit country,
so what do we lose by
the Chinese raising tariffs on us?
We export one-fifth to them
of what they export to us.
So, that is a losing hand for them.
Okay, setting aside that
"playing with a pair of twos"
sounds like how you'd describe
a threesome with Don Jr. and Eric,
that is incredibly simplistic.
Because it ignores
that China's leverage in a negotiation
isn't confined to just tariffs.
It can hurt us in other ways too.
Including by cutting off access to rare
earth elements we may badly need.
And before you think "rare earth
elements" are just some fancy powder
Gwyneth Paltrow adds to her morning
smoothie to enhance vaginal wellness,
you should know, they're
actually essential for everything
from wind turbines to computer
chips to F-35 stealth fighter jets.
And incredibly,
that Whoville tax accountant
wasn't even the most
reckless player
in the Trump administration's
messaging to China this week.
Because JD Vance, true to form,
was even more of a dick.
What has globalist economy gotten
the United States of America?
And the answer is, fundamentally,
it's based on two principles,
incurring a huge amount of debt to buy
things other countries make for us.
And to make it
a little more crystal clear:
we borrow money from Chinese
peasants
to buy the things those
Chinese peasants manufacture.
I know it is hard to take from
someone with this accent,
but you are really not supposed
to use the word "peasants" anymore.
That is incredibly insulting,
especially coming from the man who,
remember,
is next in line to run the country,
if anything were to happen
to Elon Musk,
so it is no wonder those comments
went down pretty badly in China.
The government's response?
Swift and scathing.
It's both astonishing and lamentable
to hear this vice president
make such ignorant
and disrespectful remarks.
On China's tightly
controlled internet,
government censors are allowing
Vance's interview to go viral,
amplifying the outrage,
igniting anger and sarcasm.
"Have you said 'thank you'
for the money we lent you?"
A reference to China being
the second-largest foreign
holder of U.S. government debt,
and that infamous Oval Office
exchange with Ukraine's president.
Yeah, that's a pretty solid burn.
And I guess, in a way,
it's reassuring to know that,
despite our differences,
the American and Chinese people
can come together to agree
that it is fun to dunk on this cursed
Cabbage Patch bitch.
And look, you can say,
"Well, that's all well and good, but
I still trust Trump to make a deal."
But here's the thing,
we actually know what happens
when he starts a trade war,
because remember, he did
a version of this in his first term,
and it didn't go great.
If you look back
at his tariffs back then
protecting products and industries,
like washing machines and steel,
they might have worked in a narrow
sense by creating modest job gains.
They're credited with creating
or saving
"several thousand jobs
in the steel industry"
and creating around 1,800 jobs
manufacturing washing machines.
But in the broader sense,
those jobs cost us a lot.
Trump's tariffs wound up
raising prices,
to the point where it's estimated
American consumers and businesses
had to pay more than 900,000 dollars
a year for every steel job created,
and over 800,000 a year for each
job making washing machines,
putting the total cost of those
jobs in the billions of dollars.
And that's before you get to the fact
that because his tariffs on metals
drove up costs for other industries,
one study estimated they resulted in
as many as 75,000 fewer
manufacturing jobs.
And when it comes
to China in particular,
his first-term tariffs
did bring in billions,
by raising
the costs of their goods here.
But the broader damage to American
farmers after China retaliated
was so severe that 92%
of what we collected
went right back out the door
in the form of bailouts to them.
And the kicker is, we didn't get
much out of all of that.
Because after a trade agreement
was reached,
Trump excitedly bragged he'd got
China to commit to purchase
an additional 200 billion
in U.S. products,
but later analysis showed it
effectively bought none of those goods.
None of them.
But please, don't worry,
I'm sure Trump definitely
learned his lesson, and this time,
he's gonna get an empty promise
for 500 billion.
Fool him once, shame on him.
Fool him twice,
that's basically what everyone does.
And remember, Trump's first-term
tariffs are absolutely dwarfed
by what he's done
over the last two weeks.
It's not like he's negotiating
from a strong position right now,
because everyone knows
he just blinked.
The bond markets got
the yippies, and he blinked.
And again, it's good that that
happened. I'm glad he blinked.
But it's weird to claim it's
a brilliant negotiating tactic
when you've already backed down
before a single deal is reached.
And the thing is, this could
all cost us an awful lot.
Because maybe the most striking
thing over the past two weeks
has been the degree to which
it's become clear
the world's trust in America
has been shattered.
This isn't just the ordinary
give-and-take of negotiations,
countries are openly saying
things are different now.
Canada's prime minister
actually summed it up pretty well
the day after Trump's initial round
of tariffs were announced.
The global economy is fundamentally
different today than it was yesterday.
The system of global trade
anchored on the United States
that Canada has relied on
since the end of the Second World War,
a system that,
while not perfect,
has helped to deliver prosperity for
our country for decades, is over.
While this is a tragedy,
it is also the new reality.
That is a bleak thing to hear.
"Tragedy is the new reality"
is a grim summation of
the state of world affairs,
but also, I'm just gonna say it,
kind of a fucking bar.
Honestly, you slap that title
on a new Fallout Boy album,
the girls are going feral.
And it's not just world leaders,
investors are making it clear
they no longer have the trust
they once did
in the stability
of the American economy.
Usually,
when the stock market drops,
the market for U.S. government
bonds improves,
because they're seen
as a safe investment.
This week, though,
they both went down,
which is a terrible sign.
As one economist put it,
"Investors and central banks"
"are selling Treasuries and dollars
due to a loss of confidence"
"and credibility in American assets.
Financial chaos has its cost."
That is bad.
And by the way, that is from Friday,
after the pause was announced.
And that is the thing,
while everyone may want to pretend
this crisis is past us, it's just not.
Even Chuck Schumer seemed to miss
that point, when he tweeted out,
"History will remember April 9th, 2025
as America's actual liberation day,"
"the day that President Trump backed
down from his ridiculous tariff fiasco."
But it's not over, Chuck!
We dodged a bullet,
but the monkey still has a gun!
And incidentally,
if anyone watching this is close
to Chuck Schumer right now,
please take his phone,
take it out of his hand,
and throw it into the fucking ocean!
So, what do we do? Well, ideally,
Congress would realize
just how close
we came to financial Armageddon,
and take away the president's
power to unilaterally impose tariffs.
There's actually a bill
in Congress right now,
cosponsored by Chuck Grassley,
that "would require the White House
to justify tariffs and give lawmakers"
"the opportunity to reject them
within 60 days of enactment",
which seems more than reasonable.
The problem is, you're gonna need
67 votes to beat a presidential veto
and Republicans
like Senator John Kennedy
are refusing to sign on,
using this logic.
I have not joined the Grassley bill.
Not likely to join the Grassley bill.
The Grassley bill will not pass.
And I just think it's a distraction.
The most immediate question for me
is, the president is a pit bull.
He's won. He's caught the car.
The question is, what's
he gonna do with the car?
Look, that is a shitty answer
in so many different ways,
but the main one is, the whole
idiom "the dog that caught the car"
is based on the fact dogs have no plan
for what to do after they catch it.
That is damning enough alone!
No one says,
"He's like the dog that caught the car,"
"as phase one of the dog's long-term
strategy to reshore manufacturing."
Also, you're a coequal branch
of government,
it is your job to stop that dog,
not stand back and say,
"I dunno, guys, let him cook."
"There's always the chance
of an 'Air Bud' situation here."
I don't know where things
are gonna go next.
We're taping this on Saturday.
Who knows what's happened
between now and
when you are seeing this?
Maybe Trump will have rolled
the tariffs back even further,
maybe he'll have put even
bigger new ones in on mangoes.
What is clear is that he's
destabilizing our economy
with no real plan of action,
and all I'll say is,
if our next episode opens up
with me sitting next to a chart
of the Nasdaq and Miss Piggy,
it means we are fucked.
And now, this.
And Now: People Just Want to Talk
About One Particular HBO Show.
Everyone's entitled to their opinion
on the season three ending
of "White Lotus".
- Finally.
- Can we clamp her in over there?
I feel like she's gonna fly out
of the chair here.
"The White Lotus" season three
came to an end last night.
- Did you watch?
- I sure did.
Me too, yeah. I'm doing Parker Posey's
character, Victoria.
I want my Lorazepam!
- You guys watching "White Lotus"?
- Yes!
Piper, no!
Piper, no!
Piper, no spoilers here.
- Piper, no! "White Lotus"?
- Yes. "White Lotus" is so good.
You guys are awesome.
- Do you know what it reminds me of?
- What?
- "White Lotus."
- Don't say a word.
- Did you watch it?
- Not yet.
Okay, good.
You know what I had for
the "White Lotus" finale? Singha.
It's a Thai beer.
Yeah, 'cause we had Thai food.
By the way, J-Mac had me watch
"White Lotus", so I went on vacation.
- I was forced to watch season three.
- Forced?
Time out. Who's your favorite character
on season three of "White Lotus"?
I hate all of them.
- Piper, no! Do it.
- Piper, no!
Moving on. Before we go,
I'd like to take a brief moment
to talk about fish.
They come in all shapes and sizes,
big, small, long, round, spiky,
and shoot it, please.
Spring is here, meaning it's time
for an exciting annual ritual,
which I'll let this pro wrestler
on TikTok explain.
All right, nobody freak out,
but I just want to let you guys know
that it's finally fish doorbell
season again,
which is the most wonderful
time of the year.
This website is called "Visdeurbel"
which is dutch for "fish doorbell"
and you might be thinking,
"What is a fish doorbell?"
"No way it's a doorbell for fish."
But it actually is a doorbell for fish.
Yeah, it is. I'm about
to spend the rest of this show
talking about a fish doorbell,
or as it's called in the Netherlands,
"Visdeurbel."
Which sounds like someone hit
with a tranquilizer dart
trying to say "Vin Diesel".
And I promise: I'll explain
what it is in a minute,
but before I do, I do need you
to know that that man's a WWE wrestler,
who goes by the ring name
"Shiloh Hill",
which, to be honest,
isn't a top-tier wrestling name.
It sounds more like the title
of an unwatchable indie film.
But it gets even more confusing
when you find out
that his real, legal name
is Thunder Justice Keck.
I am completely serious. Imagine
having the name "Thunder Justice"
and using something else
to wrestle under.
It'd be like finding out that my legal
name was "Zippy Bookworm".
Why change?
Anyway, the point is:
the Netherlands
has a doorbell for fish,
or to be more specific,
a doorbell for humans for fish.
I'll let this reporter explain.
Usually, when you get a fishy-looking
visitor at your door,
you may choose not to answer,
but these creatures,
stuck behind a manually operated
lock in the Netherlands,
require a helping hand.
For the past five years,
officials in the city of Utrecht
have been alerted about any buildup
of fish thanks to this live feed.
Millions have been watching it
around the world,
and if they spot a fish,
they can ring a doorbell
that sends a screenshot to organizers
who can open the gate.
It shows there's a huge willingness
and potential in people
just offering a little bit of help
to create a little bit
of a better environment.
It's true. There is a wholesome
livestream of Dutch fish
waiting at a gate, and you
could be watching it right now.
Did you just hear me?
You could be watching patient
Dutch fish. Why are you still here?
Although, honestly, that's a fair
question even without the fish.
It's Sunday at 11:00, could be watching
"Godzilla vs. King Kong" on TBS
or an episode of "Dyson Cleaning"
on QVC.
But given what I just told you,
you could be watching schools of fish
banging at the gates of a Dutch canal,
I repeat: why are you still here?
The fish doorbell concept
is very simple.
You don't want fish accumulating around
the locked gates for long,
because it's easier for predators
to attack them there.
So, anyone can watch the stream,
and if they see a fish,
and ring the doorbell for them,
the organizers get sent a screenshot.
And when enough people do that,
a lock keeper is asked
to manually open the gates.
And it is important
that that happens.
Because the fish need to get safely
through the canal as part
of their annual migration to search
for a place to spawn and reproduce.
Or, to put it more crudely,
Are they frisky fish?
Are they horny fish?
What kind of fish
are we talking here?
Yeah, I think you could describe
them as horny fish.
They've got
one thing on their minds.
Yeah, they do!
These fish want to fuck.
So, not only are you ringing
a fish doorbell for their freedom,
you're wingman-ing them
to completion.
Their pleasure
is literally in your hands.
The doorbell's livestream alone
is dangerously addictive,
but its co-creator also provides
a weekly report
on what's been happening,
and it is excellent.
I've also gotten messages
saying the fish doorbell
is being watched in all kinds
of places in all kinds of ways.
I was sent this amazing photo
of Kali the house chicken,
who also watches the fish doorbell
news. It's wonderful to see.
Yes. Yes, it is.
And it proves that as a host,
I have made all the wrong decisions.
This impossibly blonde Utrecht 10
does weekly news reports
featuring a chicken
watching horny fish
in what looks like an after-hours
West Elm, meanwhile,
I actively choose to give weekly
book reports on hospice fraud
in front of a skyline
made of credit card chips.
This man is everything
that I am not.
But wait, because he also gives updates
on the kinds of fish people have seen.
This catfish is certainly more
than a meter,
maybe even one and a half meters
long. Just in the Utrecht lock.
What an amazing thing to see!
All in all, a really cool week.
I love it so much. To be able to end
that by saying "a really cool week"
just fills me with envy.
That is something that no one in America
has been able to say for years.
To be Dutch!
You know what the prime minister
of the Netherlands said this week?
Of course you don't.
And I'll tell you why,
because he doesn't alter the course
of world history
with every fucking word he says!
And that must be so refreshing.
Do you even know their
prime minister's name?
No, you don't! But you should,
because it is,
and this is true, Dick Schoof.
Dick, and I really must repeat,
Schoof.
Which, not for nothing,
would be a pretty good name
for that fish fuck canal.
Every spring, these Dutch fish must
pass through the Dick Schoof.
We are actually entering prime fish
doorbell season right now.
It runs from early March
to late May,
and attracts
millions of viewers annually.
And I will admit, most of the time,
you're just watching murky water
in a Dutch canal.
But if you spot a fish
and you get to ring that doorbell,
it is incredibly exciting,
as Shiloh Hill can attest.
I know I'm pretty easily entertained,
but in my opinion,
this is like one of the best sites
on the internet.
The thrill you get letting a fish
through is unparalleled.
He's a monster. Let's go!
Be free, buddy!
Yes, be free! Go get yours, fish!
Swim like no one's watching, and
fuck like you've never been hurt!
You've made it through the gates,
and you're comfortably in your
"Sex and the City" Samantha era!
The point is, this is
the best site on the internet.
My only complaint is that,
in all the time that I've spent on it,
I've hardly seen any fish.
Which does make me wonder:
is it that the fish just
aren't horny enough?
Because they should be.
It is spawning season.
But if they're still not showing up,
it tells me that they lack
the proper motivation.
Which might be fair,
travel is exhausting.
We all need help setting
the mood from time to time,
whether that's candles,
or lingerie, or maybe some mood music
to get things going,
a sexy slow jam like
"Let's Get It On" by Marvin Gaye,
"Love in This Club" by Usher
or "Let Me Love You" by Mario.
And maybe these fish
are no different.
What I'm saying is,
Visdeurbel goes a long way
towards making fish sex safe,
welcoming, and convenient.
But it's hamstrung by needing
to be family friendly.
It's unable to set the mood
that these fish clearly need.
What they need is a sexy R&B song
tailored to their fish needs.
And that is where we can step in.
So, for any fish watching,
we've set up Show-Me-Your-
Netherlands-dot-com,
and if you go there, fish,
and push that doorbell,
you'll see a special performance
of a bona fide slam jam
specifically for Dutch fish,
by Mario.
And guess what? That performance
is about to happen right now.
Ladies and gentlemen,
please welcome Mario!
Yeah! Listen!
I know about fish things,
I know what spring brings.
Fish doorbell, don't leave me.
This time you'll believe me.
Got their fate in my hands.
Gonna do what I can.
Ring, ring, and they'll be free.
Ring, ring, fish sex spree.
You know I look deep in.
Girl, you know we locked in.
I release your stress 'cause
I know you feel that pressure.
Ring the bell
and make you go through, yeah.
I want to watch those Dutch
fish make love and screw, yeah.
Just keep on rubbing fins.
Girl, I don't wanna stop this.
Keep on swimming,
I can see those gills go.
I know you like
how I got that surprise.
'Cause now I got you spawning
Break through that lock, girl,
you're already wet.
And hit that doorbell
deep in Utrecht.
If loving fish is wrong,
then I don't wanna get it right.
Now, ladies, if you ever wanted
your man to be a fish
that would bust right through
the canal for you, it's me, baby.
Listen!
See, baby, I just don't get it,
maybe I'm asking too much.
Let me get that lock open,
and you can call it going Dutch.
You know it's spawning season,
and I'm not telling you lies.
The fish that you are, you stick
around and I just don't know why.
'Cause if I was a fish, baby,
you'd never worry 'bout what I do.
I'd be swimming home, back to you.
Every night, doing you right.
You're the type of fish
that deserves good things.
Fist full of fish food,
and other fish things.
Baby, you're a fish, and I just
want to show you, you are.
You should ring that doorbell,
swim up to my shore.
Hell, I don't need a seashell
to find them pearls.
I'm all about protection,
natural selection.
Show you all the way back
to the sea.
Baby, you should ring
that doorbell!
You should ring that doorbell, baby!
Ring that doorbell.
Mario, ladies and gentlemen!
Yes!
That is our show, thank you
so much for watching.
We're off next week,
back April 27th, good night!
Mario, give it to
them one more time!
Love you, let me be the one to
Give you everything
you want and need.
Baby, good love and protection.